The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 33 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ackman: Biden wealth tax will bankrupt every startup in America
“You know, the Biden wealth tax, which is like, 25% of the appreciation of things that you own privately, it's going to bankrupt every startup. No one will ever start a business in America anymore, right?”
Ackman: Lack of SVB Guarantee Would Have Caused Regional Bank Runs
“Woke up Saturday morning after the events of the week, pretty convinced that if the government didn't, at a minimum, guarantee deposits at Silicon Valley Bank, we'd have a massive run at pretty much every regional bank on Monday.”
Ackman: Expanding immigration is the best way to curb inflation
“The best way to solve that problem is to open up immigration, right? Why, why force people out of work to slow the economy to get rid of inflation? Why not increase the supply of workers so that you know, we temper the increases in wages? I just think it's a b…”
Ackman: Donald Trump would defeat Joe Biden in a presidential matchup
“If it's Biden, Trump, I think Trump wins.”
Ackman: Asset managers do not need carried interest tax advantages
“I don't think we need that extra tax advantage. I carried interest when you're managing assets to motivate our economic behavior.”
Ackman: Missing Out on Big Winners Can Be Worse Than Losing Capital
“Missing Google can be a, you know, as important a mistake, or maybe even a bigger mistake, if you will, than missing You know, the next, like some other making a bad investment that doesn't work, I guess is my fault.”
Ackman: Pershing Square Lost $400 Million Exiting Netflix Position
“So we took about a billion dollar position in Netflix after the stock fell about 50%. And then, you know, we're a long term investor, but we learned information within a few months of the initial investment, i.e. The next quarter's results at Colt, caused us t…”
Ackman: 90% of Pershing Square Investments Over 20 Years Were Profitable
“The reality is, 90% of the investments we've made in the last 20 years have been profitable. In fact, meaningfully profitable.”
Ackman: Pershing Square has never gone long or short regional banks
“We have never been short regional banks. We've never been long regional banks.”
Ackman: Decent chance Fed Chair Powell pauses interest rate hikes
“And so I think there's a decent chance Powell says, you know, we've, we're not raising rates.”
Ackman: A business leader running as a Democrat could defeat Trump
“And I think they can absolutely get the Democratic nominee And against Trump, they'll get the you know, the center and center right part of the Republican Party and can win.”
Ackman: For-Profit Models Solve Most Problems Better Than Philanthropy
“And what I've learned from that is that philanthropy is, is often not the solution to many problems and that you know, business and for-profit business models are much more effective solutions to problems, most problems.”
Ackman predicts persistent 3% to 4% inflation for foreseeable future
“The world is a structurally different place than it was for the last 20 odd years, and you're going to see persistent levels of inflation, you know, three to four percent inflation for the foreseeable future. I think that, that's certainly being missed based o…”
Ackman: Timidity in position sizing held back Pershing Square's results
“It was less than, it was about a point and a half of our, a little under two percent of our capital, but could it have been three percent? Could have been four percent for sure. And so when I look back at something like that, I would have been willing to lose …”
Ackman: Pershing Square made $2.8B hedging interest rates but was "timid"
“We should have made ten billion dollars on, on hedging interest rate risk. Instead we made 2.8 billion because we were a little timid.”
Ackman: Pershing Square holds fund cash in U.S. Treasuries to avoid bank risk
“Other than cash we need for daily needs, we keep that number pretty small everything else is in a U.S. Treasury money market account, or we own U.S. Treasury bills directly. So we're not taking bank risks, we're just facing the U.S. Sovereign. And then the cas…”
Ackman: 98% of a successful marriage depends on partner selection
“So it starts with finding the right person, I would say. That's about 98%. You can have, you can choose the wrong person, and you can do all the right things, and it's not going to make for a great marriage. So I would say, it's a lot in the selection, the mut…”
Ackman: Universal Music Group is the best 10-year long holding
“Well, I would say of the businesses we own, I would say in an uncertain world, you got to own universal music company, universal music group. Because the one thing I'm confident about is more people will have music subscriptions or be streaming music from what…”
Ackman: Monopolistic legacy companies are guaranteed to be disrupted by blockchain
“There are businesses that are guaranteed to be disrupted by blockchain that are old fashioned, old, you know, businesses that everyone hates because they're monopolists and you can disrupt them with blockchain technology. So I would be short those companies.”
Ackman: Universal Music Group has very little debt and high predictability
“If you're investing in the world's most dominant music company, Universal Music, it's, has very little debt. It has a great market position. You can predict business with a very high degree of confidence, and you're buying it at a fair price.”
Ackman: Pershing Square bought interest rate options striking above 93 bps
“We bought, in effect, the way to think about it is we bought a call option. That paid off when two-year interest rates went above 93 basis points, and we had about an eighteen-month term. And at the time we bought that instrument, two-year rates were at 12 bas…”
Four of Gotham Partners' Debut LPs Were Forbes 400 Billionaires
“But of the original six, four of the six were in the four, 400 wealthiest people in America.”
Ackman: Established Entrepreneurs Are Receptive First LPs for Young Managers
“And what was interesting is the people who were entrepreneurs really liked the idea of backing a couple of young guy, a couple of young guys who were entrepreneurs. And I think that was a big part of the connection.”
Ackman: Disappointments in Business Came From Ignoring Initial Gut Instincts
“Probably, probably neither but I would say I form a view of a person's character pretty quickly, and the vast majority of the time I've been right with only a few disappointments, I would say. And the disappointments have been cases, in most cases, and there h…”
Ackman: Plenty of Capital Exists for Second-Time Founders Who Failed
“There's plenty of capital available for people who are second time founders and the first one was not a successful exit.”
Ackman: Pershing Square Invests Exclusively in Liquid Large-Cap Public Companies
“We built Pershing Square to invest only in, you know, liquid large cap public companies and it's served us really well.”
Ackman: Fed Chair Jay Powell Follows Him on Twitter Anonymously
“I'm quite sure he actually follows me, you know, not under the name Jay Powell.”
Ackman: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are Pershing Square's only financial holdings
“The only financial institutions we own are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which we've owned for years, which are kind of, if you will, options on a potential restructuring of those institutions years from now.”
Ackman: SVB was unique in its disproportionate long-duration asset exposure
“Silicon Valley Bank was, I would say, unique in the disproportionate amount of exposure they had to, kind of, long-duration fixed-income assets versus other banks.”
Ackman: Open to entering politics if his day job gets boring
“Someday. I'm open to it. Someday when my day job gets boring. I don't think my day job's gonna get boring.”
Ackman: Beyond basic security and education, housing wealth does not impact child development
“I don't know that it matters so much whether you live in a 300,000 dollar house Or a two million dollar house, or a twenty million dollar house, or whether your parents drive a Toyota. You know, I think that the major differences are, you have access to a good…”
Ackman Raised $3.1 Million From Six LPs to Launch Gotham Partners
“But we had I think we eventually saw well over a hundred people, and we had six people ultimately say yes and give us money, and the six people totaled, look, 3.1 million dollars. Actually three million, and my partner and I put up a hundred together.”