why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
B2C drone services represent the largest long-term market growth opportunity
“Where this becomes really exciting is really where it goes B to C, which is, you know, I take delivery of a package or I fly to work on a flying car. And that's where drones are really going to touch hundreds of millions or billions of people. And I think that…”
Prediction Held up
Mega drone businesses will not emerge from narrow enterprise vertical software
“And that's a great way to start building a decent business, but I don't think it's where the mega businesses are going to be created.”
Prediction Held up
Intel and Qualcomm investments will reduce drone hardware consolidation around DJI
“I think that's going to change over time. You know, we're seeing more and more investment from chipset makers like Intel and Qualcomm trying to make it easier for more OEMs to bring drones to market. We're seeing significant contributions to open source flight…”
Prediction Partly held up
US regulations will soon permit beyond visual line-of-sight drone flights
“Pretty soon we're going to see regulations that allow for flights over people here in the United States and beyond visual line-of-sight flights.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
AirMap will facilitate millions of daily autonomous drone flights by 2023
“Well, I think five years from now, we're going to be helping millions of drones flying every single day, flying autonomous routes, bringing value to people in their daily lives, and this entails serving not only the market that exists today, but really working…”
Prediction Held up
Early-stage drone startups will face significant market consolidation
“I think there's going to be some significant consolidation.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
The drone market will shift from full-stack to specialized component providers
“Over time, that's going to have to change in order for the business to scale. Different organizations, different individuals, entrepreneurs, companies, et cetera, are going to have to focus on delivering something, a component, and doing it really, really well…”