why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Hoffman: Founder CEOs are paid 5x less than external CEO hires
“Founder CEOs are very undercompensated. Like the go forward comp for a founder CEO today, once you, let's say you're there for over four years, your go forward comp is probably five X lower than if they hired an outside CEO.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Hoffman: LPs will cease re-upping with non-performing VC fund managers
“Well, I do think there were a lot of VCs with subpar returns that were still raising their third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh funds. That is very unlikely going to happen in the future. So I think you're the, sorry, VCs that were doing that from LPs. And so …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: Venture capital firms will increasingly specialize team roles
“You're going to start to see different firms start splitting the stack a bit, and they're going to have certain people who are going to be good... You're going to start to see that much more so with investing, where if you're going to have a team anyway, and i…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Auren Hoffman: High employee impact strongly correlates with working the most hours
“The people I've worked with who have been the most impactful people, it is extremely high, highly correlated that they also put in the most hours.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Auren Hoffman: Most companies get far less than 40 weekly productive hours per employee
“Most companies are not getting anywhere close to 40.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Auren Hoffman: Fully committed founders never lose investor capital
“If you ever see a scenario where a founder is putting more than a hundred percent in, I have never seen that company do less than a one X ever. That company has always been successful.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: Firing founder CEOs was commonplace in the 80s/90s but rare today
“Every VC today is founder friendly, right? It's pretty rare nowadays for a founder to get fired. Whereas like in the eighties and nineties, that was commonplace for a founder to get fired.”
Assertion Contradicted
Hoffman: 22 of Facebook's first 25 employees left within four years
“I think 22 out of the first 25 people at Facebook left after, within the first three or four years.”
Assertion Partly supported
Hoffman: Insight Partners deploys a 20-person team to evaluate deals
“If you think of like an insight which is one of the more successful late stage. Like they have like a 20 person team evaluate a deal. They don't just have like one person do the whole thing.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Hoffman: Recent tech IPOs will not hold IPO prices by Halloween 2024
“If you're saying, are they all up? I would say, I will say no. I say the chance that they're all up would be very, very would be very low.”