The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

2statements match

0resolved → 2open claims → 0supported → 0contradicted →

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2034

Narayanan: AI model scaling cycles are ending

“We're not gonna have too many more cycles, possibly zero more cycles, of a model that's almost an order of magnitude bigger in terms of the number of parameters than what came before, and thereby more powerful.”

Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 0:00 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2029

Narayanan: Lower AI inference costs will increase total enterprise AI spend

“And I predict that we're going to see the same thing with models when models get cheaper. They're put into a lot more things, and so the total amount that companies are spending on inference is actually going to increase.”

Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 14:02 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

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