The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Narayanan: GPT-4 passing bar and medical exams meant nothing for actual practice
“So when GPT-IV came out and OpenAI claimed that it passed the bar exam and the medical licensing exam people were very excited slash scared about what this means for doctors and lawyers, and the answer turned out to be approximately nothing, right? Because it'…”
Narayanan: Comparing AI to nuclear weapons is a category error
“I think it's a bit of a category error there. I mean, a nuclear weapon is an actual weapon. AI is not a weapon.”
Narayanan: Oligopoly of tech giants dominating AI models is serious risk
“That might happen. I think that's a very serious possibility, and I think this is actually one area where regulators should be paying attention. You know, what does this mean for market concentration, antitrust, and so forth?”
Narayanan: Public right to AI knowledge overrides private commercial interests
“I don't think I would be a good CEO, but if there were one thing I could change about OpenAI, I think I think the need for the public to know what is going on with AI development overrides the you know, commercial interests of any company, so I think there nee…”
Narayanan: LLMs are an off-ramp to superintelligence requiring new breakthroughs
“I have to say, I really like Jan LeCun's perspectives on various things, including his view that LLMs Our quote unquote off-ramp to super intelligence that, you know, in other words, we need a lot more scientific breakthroughs, as well as tamping down the fear…”
Narayanan: AI is a net positive for society, unlike Bitcoin
“While there are harms around AI, I think it has been a net positive for society. I can't say the same thing about Bitcoin.”
Narayanan: Generative AI companies deluded themselves into ignoring product-market fit
“They didn't think about actually building products, you know, making things that people want, finding product market fit, and all those things that are so basic in tech, but somehow AI companies diluted themselves into thinking that the normal rules don't appl…”