The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Pompliano: Demographic diversity is the best early-stage portfolio construction strategy
“If you can get the diversification of founders, you also get the diversification of thought, perspective, industries, experiences, et cetera. And we think that's the best way to or the best way for us to build an early stage portfolio today.”
Pompliano: Historical data shows check size and follow-on decisions don't drive returns
“The only thing that correlates to outsized returns across different economic boom and bust cycles is being early in the best deals, right? So check size doesn't matter. Follow-on decision-making doesn't matter.”
Pompliano: VCs who promise post-investment help are the least likely to deliver
“My alarm to every founder is the more a venture capitalist says, I'm going to be helpful after we invest, there's usually less likelihood that they will be helpful, right?”
Pompliano: Early data shows Full Tilt Capital has eliminated the VC J-curve
“Our data shows that we've eliminated the J curve. So we've already had a company that was acquired that isn't public yet, and we've had no companies go out of business.”
Pompliano: Academic studies show VCs cannot accurately stack-rank their own portfolios
“There have been, you know, a ton of academic studies that have shown if you take an investor's portfolio and you sit them down and you say, can you please stack rank your portfolio in terms of who should have the best outcome and who should have the worst outc…”
Pompliano: 'Founder-friendly' VCs still weigh ideas 50-50 against founders
“Most of the investors who talk about being founder-friendly, they're talking about the investment terms, the way they interact with founders et cetera, but they're still making decisions based on closer to a fifty-fifty on the company idea and the founders.”
Pompliano: Full Tilt Capital weights decisions 90% on founders, 10% on ideas
“From our perspective, we really focus more on ninety-ten, so 90% on the founders, 10% on the idea and market.”
Pompliano: Full Tilt invested in deals no other VCs know exist
“There's a number of deals that we've invested in, That I'm a hundred percent confident there's not another venture capitalist in the world that knows about it because we were there from day one and we know that the founders never talked to another venture capi…”
Pompliano: Proprietary deal flow is a misleading term driven by serendipity
“I don't think that proprietary deal flow is, I think it's a misleading term, right? I think that what ends up happening is their serendipity.”
Pompliano: Pure intelligence is overrated compared to EQ in predicting success
“I believe that Intelligence is quite overrated, and EQ is quite underrated. I think that you can be very successful by having a high EQ, and if you have intelligence as well, then you kind of just double your probability for success, but I think that most peop…”
Pompliano: Wargaming hypothetical scenarios is best for evaluating founder decision-making
“In our eyes, it's to try to recreate those situations as, you know, accurately as possible. And so, by hypothetically kind of wargaming that stuff, we get, you know, at least a glimpse as to how will they handle that stuff. And then also, we get a glimpse as t…”