The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Duke: 1990s poker required less skill due to wider informational edge
“So the gap between the people who like understood the game and knew the game and everybody else was so wide that as a professional, you didn't need to be nearly as good then as you would need to be now in order to win.”
Annie Duke Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 7:20 20VC: Annie Duke on Reversible vs Irreversible Decisions, How To Evaluate Risk, The Theory of Sunk Cost in Venture & How to Optimise Both the Discussion and Quality of Investment Decisions
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Duke: About 80% of meeting time is spent discussing existing consensus
“About 80% of meetings get spent on agreements.”
Annie Duke Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 20:24 20VC: Annie Duke on Reversible vs Irreversible Decisions, How To Evaluate Risk, The Theory of Sunk Cost in Venture & How to Optimise Both the Discussion and Quality of Investment Decisions
Assertion Partly supported
Duke: Research shows people escalate commitment when outcomes deteriorate
“There's really amazing work, some from Katie Milkman and Maurice Schweitzer, which shows this escalation of commitment, that when things are going poorly, we actually escalate our commitment.”
Annie Duke Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 23:29 20VC: Annie Duke on Reversible vs Irreversible Decisions, How To Evaluate Risk, The Theory of Sunk Cost in Venture & How to Optimise Both the Discussion and Quality of Investment Decisions
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