The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 6 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Feldman predicts there will be zero market for slow AI inference
“Why do we believe that inference will be any different? There'll be zero marking for slowing them.”
Feldman predicts AI productivity gains will increase engineering hiring, not reduce it
“If we get, as we get more productive, we do more things, we're gonna hire more engineers. We're not gonna hire less engineers.”
Feldman: Global economy will reorganize around AI within five years
“However is it possible that our economy looks very different? In five years. Is it possible that, ah, the things we value, ah, are very different? That we have reorganized around AI. We've seen a major bump in, in labor productivity. We have benefited dramatic…”
Feldman: The tech industry is 100% underestimating the AI inference market size
“I think the reason I'm a hundred percent sure that, that we are underestimating the market is because of that premise.”
Feldman: AI will rely less on transformers in 3 to 5 years
“We won't be as dependent on transformers in three years or five years as we are now.”
Feldman: AI inference market will grow over 100x in five years
“I think we're way over a hundred times bigger.”
Feldman: Nvidia's AI chip market share will fall to 50-60% in 5 years
“I think you know, in five years from now, NVIDIA is going to have 60. Somewhere between 50 and 60% of the market, right? I think right now they have approximately all of it. I think they will come down over time.”
Feldman: Chip providers will hold far more market value than model companies
“In the five year timeframe, Yes.”
Feldman: AI adoption will equal cell phone penetration within two years
“I do think that Within a year or two. AI's penetration will be approximately the same as telephones, cell phones.”
Feldman predicts AI will eliminate routine informational human resources jobs
“I think the role of HR changes fundamentally. The part of AR, HR that just, that answered questions, that provided information about benefits, that, that disappears.”
Feldman: AI adoption will diffuse slowly rather than causing immediate labor disruption
“Economic dislocation. Isn't resolved in very short periods of time. That might be true in 15 years. But I think in the three to five year time frame I certainly don't believe that will be the case. I think AI will the adoption of AI or the diffusion of AI into…”
Feldman: Cerebras will land several G42-scale deals within 24 months
“That's a good question. Several.”
Feldman: Cerebras still intends to go public despite pre-IPO round
“We still have every intention of going public.”
Feldman: Massive AI productivity gains require reorganizing workflows around AI
“If you use OpenAI in various of their competitors, the way you use Google, you'll see a very modest jump. In productivity. If you use them in a fundamentally different way, that was Sam's point, you'll see a huge jump. And if we use, if we reorganize ourselves…”
Feldman: AI will surpass human entry-level workers at spreadsheets and research summaries
“I think what it means to be entry level in a company will change a great deal because what entry level has generally meant in consulting firms and at investment banks has been doing shit work in particular being really good at spreadsheets and writing summarie…”
Feldman: Cerebras will be among the first AI hardware companies to go public
“We think that we will be among the first in the category.”
Feldman: Sub-milliwatt sensor chips will sell massive volume and power robotics
“I'd say in the chip world, the sub milliwatt, really tiny, tiny little chips that live next to sensors that do inference. These are tiny little things that will only send back useful data. Is a, an extremely interesting market, and they will sell enormous volu…”
Feldman: Cerebras tech will enable novel disease therapeutics within five years
“I think in three to five years, I would like our technology to have been used to solve two important societal problems. I would like it to be used to have found a therapeutic for, ah, an affliction that, that impacts more than a million people a year. I would …”