why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Angelopoulos: Kimi K3 Beat Top US Closed Models in Web Development
“And for the first time ever, we saw a couple of weeks ago that Kimi K three actually beat the best closed source American models on a, you know, pretty important subset of tasks, for example, front end coding, like web development, which a huge fraction of dev…”
Assertion Supported
Angelopoulos: Most global AI inference spend remains on proprietary first-party APIs
“If you look at the whole space of all inference, most of it is still being consumed on first party APIs and on proprietary models. That's why anthropic revenue has been just a total hockey stick. It's not, you know, it's not like they're being completely canni…”
Assertion Partly supported
Angelopoulos: Thinking Machines' Inkling ranks #1 in US open source, behind nine Chinese models
“And within that time, they'd become the number one American open source model. But then the less generous take would be the companies existed for a year and a half. And then they've come up with, yes, the number one American open source, but there's nine Chine…”
Assertion Supported
Angelopoulos: Arena has 30M+ monthly visitors, bigger than Hugging Face and xAI
“People don't know this, but Arena's one of the largest consumer AI apps in the world. We're bigger than, like, XAI. We're bigger than, like, Hugging Face, and Manus, and GenSpark, where it's so massive, like if you, like outside in, it's like 30 plus million m…”
Assertion Supported
Angelopoulos: Chinese AI labs face severe hardware constraints and rely on black-market chips
“So they're way hardware constrained over there. And they've been trying to like black market import chips because of this. And you see this in the news, right? The information just reported on this.”
Assertion Partly supported
Angelopoulos: China Has Already Restricted American AI Models Domestically
“And by the way, it's worth noting that China has already restricted the use of American models within China, right? So if you look at the two by two matrix of US China restrict, not restrict, you know, like export import stuff They have already restricted the …”
Assertion Supported
Angelopoulos: Google's Gemma sits on the performance-versus-cost Pareto curve
“Gemma, by the way, is pretty good in terms of efficiency. If you look at arena, you'll see the, on the Pareto curves of like performance versus cost. Gemma's on there.”
Assertion Supported
Angelopoulos: Harvey's CEO views model labs as his biggest competitive worry
“Harvey, the CEO of Harvey himself is saying that, you know, his biggest competitive worry is the model labs.”