The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Angelopoulos: Chinese AI Progress Involves More Than Distilling US Models
“That doesn't mean that they're not distilling. They may still be using distillation as a sub-step in their training procedure, But it does mean that distillation is only part of the story and that there's something that those labs are doing above and beyond di…”
Angelopoulos: Local Hosting Does Not Eliminate Pre-Trained AI Model Backdoor Risks
“What if the other side that's interacting with the chat bot can, you know, build in a certain code word or a certain like character sequence that then jail breaks that model and gets it to reveal all the data to me. So it can sort of like vomit out all of the …”
Angelopoulos: A $10B AI startup needs $4B revenue in 2-3 years to 10x
“And the thing that you really need to believe is that if the valuation is ten billion today, that you're going to generate the revenue, let's say it's a 30 X revenue multiple or 25 X revenue multiple to become a hundred billion dollar business. And so what tha…”
Angelopoulos: Model labs must enter application layer to avoid commoditization
“If, like, inference is going to commoditize, then, of course, the next best thing is for the model providers to be moving up the application layer in order to own more of the application stack so that they ensure that they're not commoditized and they're getti…”
Angelopoulos: Forward-deployed engineering plus open-source models will outlast third-party APIs
“I do think the combination of FDE plus Open American model May be a more sustainable model for the future of American or even Western businesses, because it, because they might not want to be building on top of external third party services. They might want to…”
Angelopoulos: Chip export controls risk incentivizing China to build an independent hardware ecosystem
“The downside of export control is that it can incentivize them to build their own ecosystem, and then what do we do?”
Angelopoulos: Data is the hardest part of model training as algorithms commoditize
“The data is really the hardest part of model training. Because you need to source it. It's so dirty. Nobody wants to do that shit. Nobody wants to hire all these people to generate data and then, you know, turn that into basically data plus GPUs equals model. …”
Angelopoulos: Open-source AI growth reduces Nvidia's revenue concentration
“Of course, Jensen is in some sense self-serving with this letter, because the more open source models are developed, the more companies are going to be training on GPUs. They're going to be fine tuning on their own data. And it's just more and more spend. It d…”