why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2034
Ohanian: NWSL will be bigger than MLS in 10 years
“That's why I think the NWSL will be bigger than the MLS in 10 years. Because we can tell a story of excellence in women's football in America using the NWSL. But not the MLS.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ohanian: Live sports is the one entertainment pillar AI won't disrupt
“I am very long in this age of AI on sports, obviously, because I, that's the one pillar of entertainment that is not going to be upended. Like, we will never want to see robots playing football.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ohanian: Tech Will Drive a 90/10 Power Law in Sports Franchise Valuation
“I think it will be a power law, but even in the big four in America, I think you'll see a power law where maybe it's ninety-ten even where so much of the value is going to very few of the teams because we know that's what software does.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ohanian: 80% of TV and movies will lose attention market share
“I think it is, let's go back to that Pareto, eighty-twenty action. I think 80% of movie, television, that kind of scripted, created, even non-scripted, that sort of entertainment slips.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ohanian: Individual investor brands will supersede institutional venture firm brands
“Individuals are starting to supersede the brands of firms in a way that we're seeing across industries, right? Substack. I've got a friend of mine who left her job at fortune, you know, a great publication to start a newsletter and she's already making more mo…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Ohanian: Angel City FC Will Become a Billion-Dollar Franchise
“Like I said, I, the reason I saw this opportunity in 2019 was I thought we could build a billion dollar franchise. So talk to me after that.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ohanian: Legacy Sports Broadcast Protections Will Collapse Within 5-10 Years
“Probably on the order of the next five to 10 years, you'll start to see them just topple.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ohanian: 90% of derivative music will lose in the attention economy
“But imagine maybe even 90% of music that's created is so either derivative or pop or one hit wonder. Like, it's just that, that's the stuff that's gonna be the biggest loser.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ohanian: Universal basic income is necessary to prevent existential democratic threats
“I do think things like universal basic income and whatnot are going to have to come up more and more in this conversation because well, okay, it's an existential threat to our democracy.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ohanian: Major social networks are actively being unbundled by Gen Z founders
“We're already seeing it. Absolutely. And I'm talking to founders every day. Gen Z founders who are like the way smarter versions of me graduating college. They've seen the mess that we've made over the last 15 years. They are actively building better platforms…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ohanian: Institutional capital will make professional sports teams more sophisticated and profitable
“As those private dollars come in, these teams are going to get more sophisticated. Because people are going to show up and they're going to say, look, why are you here? Oh, because my daddy gave me this job. Okay, well that's nice, but are you the best person …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ohanian: Young boys will idolize female athletes as much as male athletes
“But I think we're entering an era now where young boys will, it'll be just as easy for them to idolize male athletes as female athletes, and I think that, I mean, That's a great thing. And it's just starting to turn the corner here, and it'll be a wild new gen…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ohanian: Reality sports docuseries across men's and women's sports will be a gold mine
“In this new world, you're going to see so many more, and it won't just be women's sports, because you do have to tell the stories around women's sports differently, but it'll also be applied to male sports, like we've seen with drivers surviving elsewhere, and…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ohanian: Media era creates greater commercial opportunities for role players
“I do think in this new era, you're actually gonna find more opportunities for those role players Because you're gonna see folks who have fans that don't just have fans for their work on the court or on the pitch or on the track. They have fans because they're …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ohanian: Sports Owners Will Rapidly Adopt Tech Within Five Years
“Give it five more years and folks will level up quickly because you'll see all you need is one example in a league. One team to be doing it really well. And everyone will fast follow”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ohanian: Beauty and fashion sports sponsorship will grow massively via women's sports
“Dude, it's that this will change massively, and you can already see it coming out of the WNBA has always done a good job, but now people are really paying attention to like the fits, the walk-ups, the clothing that they're wearing.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ohanian: Seven Seven Six software will incorporate Super Forecasting principles
“I'm actually going to build in some of what they're doing into the software we're using at seven, seven, six.”