why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
Rampell: Only 5% of current unicorns will ever go public
“So probably of the unicorn class, I would bet that maybe five percent will ever be able to go public.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rampell: AI could drive Zendesk's seat-based revenue down to zero
“On the other side, you have things like Zendesk, right? Where it's like, how many licenses per seat do you need of Zendesk? If now every customer support ticket can be answered automatically, you need zero license. Like their revenue could go down a hundred pe…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rampell: AI software creation speed will massively increase application-layer competition
“I could build a software product in like two weeks. That would have taken me two years. So that's going to massively increase the pressure on the application layer.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rampell: Wealth management will be the financial sector least disrupted by AI
“I actually gave a, I gave a talk to the exec team at JP Morgan about this, right? They're like, you know, what part of our business is going to be, you know, least touched by AI? And I said, you know, wealth management, right? Because what is wealth management…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
New Tech Platforms Will Emerge or Displace Incumbents Within Years
“I'd be surprised if we only have the large five incumbent technology platforms and there's not a sixth or a seventh or maybe there are only five because one of those gets displaced. Within a couple of years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bitcoin Failed as a Currency but Works as a Store of Value
“Bitcoin has not worked as a currency, but I believe it has worked and will continue to work as a store of value.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Inexperienced Teams Raising $100M Through ICOs Will Mostly Fail
“I'm just going to go tap into an ICO, and then they raise a hundred million dollars, and they don't know what to do with it, and they have no experience whatsoever. Like, sometimes that's not, I mean, maybe those will end well, but I would take the other side …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
a16z Optimizes for Ownership Percentage Rather Than Entry Valuation
“For us, it doesn't matter if we invest at twelve million pre or fifteen million pre or eighteen million pre. Like, there's really no difference. Like, we're optimizing for ownership, and that's what we really care about.”