The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
VanDevender: Autonomous trucks will improve delivery but erode rural wealth distribution
“So if you replace the trucks with self-driving trucks, you end up with a much better goods distribution system, which is positive, but the trucking system is a much worse wealth distribution system.”
Aaron VanDevender Oct 16, 2017 ▶ 17:54 20VC: Founders Fund's Chief Scientist on Why AI Is Mostly A Scam, Why The Value of Large Datasets Is Mostly Overplayed & The Societal Effects of 4m Truck Drivers Being Unemployed with Aaron Vandevender
Assertion Not checkable as stated
VanDevender: Deep learning is just linear algebra at industrial scale
“At the core of it is just this matrix multiplication operations. It's, you know, you're just sort of doing linear algebra at industrial scale. We haven't gotten to the point for most of these things or most of the things that call themselves AI, where you're r…”
Aaron VanDevender Oct 16, 2017 ▶ 8:43 20VC: Founders Fund's Chief Scientist on Why AI Is Mostly A Scam, Why The Value of Large Datasets Is Mostly Overplayed & The Societal Effects of 4m Truck Drivers Being Unemployed with Aaron Vandevender
Assertion Not checkable as stated
VanDevender: Most 'big data' datasets are only megabytes or gigabytes
“Most of the things that are sort of big data are actually not that big. You know, you would like to, you'd like to think of these petabytes and exabytes floating around there and coming up with really amazing insights that could never have been seen. But a lot…”
Aaron VanDevender Oct 16, 2017 ▶ 9:10 20VC: Founders Fund's Chief Scientist on Why AI Is Mostly A Scam, Why The Value of Large Datasets Is Mostly Overplayed & The Societal Effects of 4m Truck Drivers Being Unemployed with Aaron Vandevender
Prediction Not checkable as stated
VanDevender: VR will repeat the mistaken belief that physical location doesn't matter
“I think we're sort of poised to make that same mistake again with virtual reality.”
Aaron VanDevender Oct 16, 2017 ▶ 23:52 20VC: Founders Fund's Chief Scientist on Why AI Is Mostly A Scam, Why The Value of Large Datasets Is Mostly Overplayed & The Societal Effects of 4m Truck Drivers Being Unemployed with Aaron Vandevender
Prediction Not checkable as stated
VanDevender: Robot maintenance jobs will pay more but employ fewer people
“There will be those, some of those jobs created and they will be better jobs than trucker jobs. Those people will be more productive. They'll get paid more. They won't be on the road all the time. They'll be home for dinner with their kids. So it'll be a bette…”
Aaron VanDevender Oct 16, 2017 ▶ 20:15 20VC: Founders Fund's Chief Scientist on Why AI Is Mostly A Scam, Why The Value of Large Datasets Is Mostly Overplayed & The Societal Effects of 4m Truck Drivers Being Unemployed with Aaron Vandevender
Assertion Contradicted
VanDevender: Atomic electron microscopes require quantum computing techniques
“So we built single atom resolution electron microscopes, which turns out to be very similar to building quantum computers. And that you're manipulating the quantum states of individual atoms, but use that for biotechnology purposes.”
Aaron VanDevender Oct 16, 2017 ▶ 3:34 20VC: Founders Fund's Chief Scientist on Why AI Is Mostly A Scam, Why The Value of Large Datasets Is Mostly Overplayed & The Societal Effects of 4m Truck Drivers Being Unemployed with Aaron Vandevender
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