The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Katz: AI agents will be fully autonomous within three to five years
“If you look out three to five years, those agents are going to be fully autonomous.”
Katz: Frontier AI labs will remain dominant over specialized models
“I think you're going to have specialized models for specific use case, like legal tech. If you look at Harvey, for example, I know they're, I think, leading the category in terms of specialization, but I think the large frontier labs are still going to be the …”
Katz: ClickHouse will surpass $1B in ARR before December 2027
“Well, I'd put the over under at December, 20, 27. And I would take the under.”
Katz: AI token volume will split 50-50 between open and frontier models
“Well, the easy answer is fifty-fifty in the same way that what percentage of enterprise software today is open source versus proprietary. I think it's a pretty even distribution.”
Katz: Software Engineering Graduates Will Face an Uncertain Market in Four Years
“If you're studying software engineering, I think you're going to be entering a market that's very uncertain in four years time.”
Katz: AI token management jobs will be made irrelevant by self-governing agents
“And then that job will be made irrelevant five years from then, because AI agents will govern themselves.”
Katz: Open-weight AI security concerns will be addressed in 1-2 years
“Today, I think it is. If I look out a year or two from now, I think a lot of these concerns will be addressed.”
Katz: Sports franchise valuations will reach $20 billion
“I do. I mean, we just saw that with the Lakers. I think it was the most expensive sports transaction in history.”
Katz: Autonomous Robotics Will Be More Disruptive to Medicine Than Pure AI
“I think robotics would be probably more disruptive, frankly, to the medical industry. We had a family member have a procedure that was done entirely autonomously with just a doctor overseeing it, but didn't actually touch an instrument. And I think that will b…”
Katz: Dedicated AI token-management finance roles will be common within 5 years
“An AI finance function. Solely dedicated on AI consumption inside of an organization. That's all they wake up thinking about.”