why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Anthropic is a better standalone AI bet than xAI
“Would I prefer, on a standalone foundation model, lab bet, would you prefer to own Entropic than X.AI plus Cursor plus the Frankenstein of Twitter? Yeah, you would, but at least it's a full-stack story now.”
Opinion
Ross: xAI's hardware strategy is sound, but proprietary model bet looks worse
“I'd feel better about my bet on building out more hardware. I would feel worse about trying to build out my own model.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mortensen: I Will Never Start a Venture Without Owning the Underlying Data
“I would never, and I'm underlining this, never start any venture for where I didn't own the underlying data on which my venture operated.”
What-if
Mortensen: x.ai Should Have Prioritized Data Labeling and Hybrid UIs Earlier
“I would spend less time on building the first models, as in, none of them survived anyway, and I would spend more time In trying to define what data to collect and how to label it. Two, I would have leaned into a mix of UIs quicker, not have spent three years …”
Prediction Held up
x.ai will sell its enterprise edition at $59 per active seat.
“So we're going to be selling the business edition at 59 bucks per seat, but under a fair billing policy, meaning that whoever uses it will pay for it. Those that do not use it within the month, they do not pay for it.”
Opinion
Multiplying per-seat pricing for teams reflects a lack of product imagination.
“Our team edition is just you pay more, as in you've got more seats, and then if it's 17 seats, I multiply the price by 17. If it's a thousand, I multiply by a thousand. I'm not so sure that you've exhausted your imagination if that's what you get to.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mortensen: AI scheduling assistant market will be winner-takes-all
“Whoever solves the software challenge will have this opportunity to take the market. It's a potential winner takes all, or certainly winner takes most, given the positive outcome of Amy speaking to Amy.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mortensen: x.ai Reached Record High Retention, Meetings Scheduled, and NPS
“I said, we've never had better retention than this week. We've never had more meetings per host set up. Than this week. We've never had a higher NPS than we've had this month.”
Disclosure
Netflix and Amazon employees adopted x.ai without any sales contact.
“On the thousands and thousands of people that have adopted the single-use case version of Amy, I never talked to the New York Times, or Netflix, or Amazon, or Salesforce, but those companies, they just have employees in pain, and since there's no integration, …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mortensen: Future AI agents will operate on existing enterprise protocols
“These agents, and I'm so bullish on this future of agents, will be so lightweight that they would probably exist on existing protocols.”
Prediction Not publicly verifiable
Mortensen: x.ai will derive most of its revenue from enterprises
“I think in the end, X.ai as a company will drive most of its revenue From the enterprise.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Turck: Vertical AI applications will create category-defining companies like x.ai
“I think there's going to be a whole range of interesting and compelling AI vertical applications, and the X.ai that you mentioned is certainly one of them, and certainly at the forefront of that trend is a rare opportunity to become a category-defining company…”
Assertion Supported
Dennis Mortensen: x.ai spent three years in R&D before monetizing
“We spent three years in the basement working on the core R&D on this before we released the first premium product.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
x.ai's AI assistant Amy receives one date request per month
“Their female persona Amy is so lifelike that users have asked her on a date at a rate of one request per month.”
Prediction Held up
Mortensen: x.ai will launch with free, pro, and business pricing tiers
“I'm very confident you'll see us be in market with three editions. A free edition where you can schedule a few meetings in the name of Amy or Andrew at x.ai. A professional edition for where you can schedule unlimited meetings, tune the signature, and do some …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mortensen: x.ai spent 1.5 years building its time-parsing AI model
“That alone, we probably spent a year and a half coming up with the right model, because humans will say stuff like, we'll meet up later, this afternoon.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mortensen: x.ai's $23M Series B provides runway deep into 2018
“And if we did nothing and just kept everything intact, we will be way into 2018. On making no revenue existing monthly investments.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mortensen: x.ai wrote 26-page guidelines just to label single data entities
“Just one of those entities, which I mentioned, whether it be time or people location, that's a 26 page set of guidelines just to label it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mortensen Conducted 1,019 Meetings in One Year Before Founding x.ai
“And I did a 1019 meetings the year prior.”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: x.ai has raised over $30M in venture capital
“And x.ai is now one of the best funded AI startups, having raised over thirty million dollars from our friends at Firstmark, and a big thanks to Matt Turt for making the intro, and the likes of DCM, Lira Hippo, Crunch Fund, SoftBank, and many more incredible i…”