The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Wagner: Venture capital splits into AUM gathering vs return generation
“I think for an asset gatherer, you know, there's sort of two business models in venture, you know, you can be in the assets under management game, or you can be in the generate best possible returns game.”
Wagner: Capping round dilution at 10% attracts passive spray-and-pray investors
“There's been so many new entrants that have pounded into venture that, you know, maybe aren't, you know, devoting that kind of company building craftsmanship to their projects, and they're really, you know, they're pursuing a spring and pray strategy or a capi…”
Wagner: Wing Avoids Investing in High-Priced LLM Development Shops
“Where we haven't been investing is the super capital intensive very, very high priced you know, sort of LLM development shops or other, you know, other sorts of similar projects.”
Peter Wagner: The best companies are not built through stampeded fundraising
“The stampeded process, I think, you know, I don't, I just don't think the best companies Are built that way.”
Wagner: Wing invested $7M in Pinecone's seed at $35M post-money
“We invested seven million dollars at 35 post, right? Like, oh, 35 post for a company with, like, no revenue and no customers and blah, blah, blah. That's what we did.”
Wagner: LPs are frustrated by mega-funds and seek pure-play early-stage VC
“There's a lot of demand for unadulterated early stage venture capital, you know, being practiced by experienced people with a track record. And a lot of the very best people with those track records, you know, are within aircraft carriers now, and the LPs are …”
Wagner: Traditional 20% VC ownership target no longer makes sense
“Fund sizes are different. Outcome sizes are different. You know, so there's no, no real reason the 20% rule should make any sense”
Wagner: Overoptimism about internet safety led to a bad AI investment
“The willingness to spend was really actually concentrated, and at least now in a relatively small number of businesses, and I think the mistake was, like, I really wanted it to be true, like, and maybe, you know, because I would just love for the internet to b…”
Peter Wagner: Thematic focus helps VCs judge market timing risks
“I think the thematic focus and sort of only working in domains that you understand really well is an advantage. You know, you have I think better, better proximity to judge when, you know, when the architectural transition is, is, is likely to occur. You have …”