The Ledger

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why aren't all 28 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2032
Whatnot Will Have the Largest IPO in History by 2032
“We're the biggest social commerce marketplace in the western world. We've had the biggest IPO ever.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 37:04 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Opinion
Clubhouse, OpenSea, and Whatnot Are the Only Notable Recent Consumer Startups
“I think in the past year, there's probably been like Three really interesting consumer companies. It's been Clubhouse, OpenSea, and us.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 22:14 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Assertion Supported
Whatnot Operates Without Product Managers, Jira, or Ticketing Systems
“Because we're in a world where we basically don't have PMs, there's so many decisions and bits of ownership that engineering is required to take control of. We don't have JIRA. No one writes tickets.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 12:20 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Insight
Startup Founders Should Never Engage in Angel Investing
“Don't do it. Never. I think there are founders I know who do it, and some of them have, like, reasonably good logical reasons for why they do it. I think if you're a founder, it's incredibly important that you fully optimize the success of your company.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 34:16 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Team Performance Drastically Improved After Every Employee Firing at Whatnot
“But what I can say is after every one that we have done, the team's actually improved quite drastically.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 19:16 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Disclosure
Whatnot's Growth Team Ships Fast and Refuses to Run A/B Tests
“At most Fang companies. The growth team is heavily oriented towards A-B testing and metrics. Our growth team is just building things and doesn't test anything and ships it fast.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 22:41 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Whatnot Operates With 50 Engineers and Only One Product Manager
“So today we have about 50 engineers in the team. We have one product manager.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 5:46 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Grant LaFontaine Claims Whatnot Is the Fastest-Growing Marketplace in Tech History
“We're the fastest growing marketplace ever.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 33:21 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Whatnot's GMV is doubling to $16 billion with a 12% take rate
“You measure GMV, which is about eight billion last year, going to sixteen billion this year, and then they get a 12% take.”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 12, 2026 ▶ 1:18:37 Canva Slashes Growth | Talent Exodus at Google | Revolut's $50B CEO Package | Musk's $55B Terrafab
Insight
Openly Roasting the CEO Builds High-Trust Executive Leadership Teams
“He'll kick it off with me where it'd be like, all right, you can go and roast Grant on all of the bad things he's doing. Give him like the toughest feedback you can give him. I'll sit there and listen to it. And most of the time it's accurate. And so I'll ackn…”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 32:02 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Insight
Leaders Must Let Problems Burn so Teams Build Problem-Solving Muscle
“I see a problem, I let it burn for a little bit, so we can get the team focused in on that problem, and actually solve it on their own.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 36:18 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Insight
Organizational People Conflicts Cannot Be Solved Using First Principles
“Like all the people problems that you run into, they're not like the business problems where you can work back from first principles. People are really like complicated. When you start to run those conflicts and getting like organizations to work well together…”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 30:52 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Insight
Startups Should Not Reward Failure, But Ensure It Is Not Punished
“We actually don't explicitly reward failure, because I also don't think you want to reward failure. We make sure that failure is not punished, right?”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 14:30 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Insight
Pre-emptively De-risking Projects Is Inefficient for Early-Stage Startups
“Most of the risks that you enumerate are never real, and so instead you kind of have to just push something out there and understand what the real risks are.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 13:43 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Whatnot's Mobile App Experienced System Outages Every Day in February 2022
“You know, I think in February of this year, our app went down every day, literally every single day.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 20:13 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Assertion Supported
Whatnot recently raised $500 million at a $20 billion valuation
“Background for people, Whatnot raised about half a billion at twenty billion in valuation, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 12, 2026 ▶ 1:17:25 Canva Slashes Growth | Talent Exodus at Google | Revolut's $50B CEO Package | Musk's $55B Terrafab
Assertion Supported
Whatnot's Live Shopping Feature Was Built by One Co-Founder in Six Weeks
“Live shopping on whatnot was built by my co-founder in six weeks by himself”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 16:30 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Assertion Supported
Whatnot Requires All Engineering Candidates to Pass a Product Interview
“All of our engineers actually go through a product interview so that they can make sound product decisions and judgments.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 5:57 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Prediction Held up
Whatnot Plans to Maintain Unusually High Engineer-to-PM Ratios Long Term
“We'll probably always keep the ratios very high relative to standard companies because we want to optimize for speed.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 6:42 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Disclosure
Whatnot Rolled Out a Major Browse Feature Update Without A/B Testing
“We just, we rolled it out two days ago. We didn't maybe test. It was a huge, huge change.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 24:45 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Insight
Startups Should Cap Experimental Bets at 20 Percent of Total Resources
“No more than 20% of resource on new and exciting bets.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 16:18 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Disclosure
Gross Merchandise Value Is Whatnot's Primary Tracked Business Metric
“The metric that we look at the most is GMV.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 26:27 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Whatnot Grew 100 Percent Month-Over-Month During Its Early Scaling Phase
“In terms of what we've messed up in culture, when we first started scaling the company, we had not like well articulated our culture. The thing was growing a hundred percent month over month.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 17:27 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Assertion Supported
Whatnot expanded to five product categories within five months of Series A
“Met with a whatnot team, and I met with them within four or five months of their series A, they were already live in five categories.”
Laela Sturdy Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 8:00 Laela Sturdy: Life Inside Alphabet's $7BN Growth Fund | E1190 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
OpenSea and Clubhouse Founders Both Originated From Pinterest
“Two out of three founders, OpenSea founder and Clubhouse founder all came from Pinterest, and a huge chunk of our team is actually now from Pinterest.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 22:21 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Disclosure
Whatnot Pivoted From Craigslist Alternative to Collectibles in Two Weeks
“We were going to start a better full service Craigslist. Two weeks in, I was validating the business model, and I was like, we can't make money from this business. We have to change. And then we switched over to building a collectibles marketplace.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 4:00 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Disclosure
Whatnot Runs Company-Wide Slack Dogfooding Before Releasing New Features
“We're really heavy dog food and culture. Once a feature is ready, We just spin up a slack dog fooding channel, and the whole company goes at it, and everyone sends the feedback, and the engineers stack rank it, and figure out what they want to fix, and what th…”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 8:53 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
Disclosure
Whatnot Allocates Significantly More Resources to the Supply Side of Its Marketplace
“Our business is very, very seller oriented. And so we do spend a lot more of our time on the supply side.”
Grant LaFontaine Mar 23, 2022 ▶ 29:10 20VC: Startups Fail Because They Do Not Take Enough Risk, Why A/B Testing is Inefficient and Slows You Down, Why It is Impossible To Hire Good PMs so Stop Trying & 3 Key Signals The Best Engineers Present with Grant LaFontaine, Founder & CEO @ Whatnot
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