The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
Lloyd: The VC trope that product quality is not a moat is false
“I feel like there's like a VC trope right now around like, well, product's not a moat. I think that that's like kind of bullshit, especially when everyone else in the market has the same product.”
Zach Lloyd Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 27:11 20VC: The Startup Adding $1M ARR Every Week | Competing Against OpenAI's Codex and Claude Code: Who Wins | Why Gemini is Failing and GPT-5 Is Winning | Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | The Ugly Truth About AI Coding with Zach Lloyd, Warp
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Zach Lloyd: Warp is adding $1M in net new ARR weekly
“We're now adding a million net new ARR every week, or even less. Honestly, recently it's accelerating.”
Zach Lloyd Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 24:27 20VC: The Startup Adding $1M ARR Every Week | Competing Against OpenAI's Codex and Claude Code: Who Wins | Why Gemini is Failing and GPT-5 Is Winning | Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | The Ugly Truth About AI Coding with Zach Lloyd, Warp
Assertion Supported
Lloyd: Warp has 700,000 users, outpacing Claude Code and OpenAI Codex
“We have way, way more users than Cloud Code, for instance, or Codex. We have 700,000 users because we've been doing this for Five years.”
Zach Lloyd Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 27:58 20VC: The Startup Adding $1M ARR Every Week | Competing Against OpenAI's Codex and Claude Code: Who Wins | Why Gemini is Failing and GPT-5 Is Winning | Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | The Ugly Truth About AI Coding with Zach Lloyd, Warp
Disclosure
Lloyd: Sequoia led a $50M Series B in pre-revenue Warp
“That was a fifty million dollar round.”
Zach Lloyd Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 47:27 20VC: The Startup Adding $1M ARR Every Week | Competing Against OpenAI's Codex and Claude Code: Who Wins | Why Gemini is Failing and GPT-5 Is Winning | Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | The Ugly Truth About AI Coding with Zach Lloyd, Warp
Disclosure
Lloyd: Every coding task at Warp starts with a prompt
“And so every single coding task we do starts with a prompt, which is the big shift in productivity that's happening right now.”
Zach Lloyd Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 13:11 20VC: The Startup Adding $1M ARR Every Week | Competing Against OpenAI's Codex and Claude Code: Who Wins | Why Gemini is Failing and GPT-5 Is Winning | Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | The Ugly Truth About AI Coding with Zach Lloyd, Warp
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lloyd: Warp will reach 1M active developer users this year
“I think we'll hit a million active users, active developers this year, and we're, and now obviously we're growing our revenue super duper fast”
Zach Lloyd Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 49:19 20VC: The Startup Adding $1M ARR Every Week | Competing Against OpenAI's Codex and Claude Code: Who Wins | Why Gemini is Failing and GPT-5 Is Winning | Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | The Ugly Truth About AI Coding with Zach Lloyd, Warp
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lloyd: Sequoia connected Warp to CrowdStrike's president within hours of an issue
“And so I reached out to Andrew. I was like, can you help me here? And then that day I was on the phone with the president of CrowdStrike.”
Zach Lloyd Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 51:48 20VC: The Startup Adding $1M ARR Every Week | Competing Against OpenAI's Codex and Claude Code: Who Wins | Why Gemini is Failing and GPT-5 Is Winning | Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | The Ugly Truth About AI Coding with Zach Lloyd, Warp
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Warp raised over $70M from Sequoia, GV, and Marc Benioff
“They've raised over seventy million dollars from the likes of Sequoia, GV, Dylan Field, Elad Gill, and even the legend that is Mark Benioff.”
Harry Stebbings Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 0:34 20VC: The Startup Adding $1M ARR Every Week | Competing Against OpenAI's Codex and Claude Code: Who Wins | Why Gemini is Failing and GPT-5 Is Winning | Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | The Ugly Truth About AI Coding with Zach Lloyd, Warp
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 1,200 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.