why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Angelopoulos: Silicon Valley investors are "total bitches" about revenue concentration
“The first is that I think that Silicon Valley investors have become total bitches with respect to revenue concentration. It's like, what the, what are you talking about? Like TSMC has revenue concentration. There's businesses that are like many hundreds of bil…”
Opinion
Feldman proposes granting TSMC and Samsung 20-year exemptions from local US ordinances
“I would allow TSMC and Samsung both to a 20 year period free from all local and legal, local ordinances, all of them, to build fabs in their desired location in the US.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
O'Driscoll: Tech giants won't cut AI spending in 2026, keeping Nvidia sold out
“No one's going to blink on their investments for twenty-twenty-six. You actually know the next four quarters of NVIDIA announcement. You know the next four quarters of every one of the infrastructure, which is every single thing we can make. If you can count t…”
Assertion Partly supported
Morin details profit margins across TSMC, Nvidia, and cloud providers
“Nvidia, like a TSMC sells you at 60% margin. Nvidia sells you at, you know, 90% margin. And on top of that, there's Amazon that takes, let's say a 30% margin.”
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: Nvidia and TSMC Have No Written Contract Despite 30-Year Partnership
“You have the NVIDIA relationship with TSMC, which famously, they don't even have a written contract. They've dealt with each other for 30 years.”
Disclosure
Feldman says Cerebras avoids TSMC CoWoS supply bottlenecks by not using it
“We are advantaged by the fact that there are constraints on COOS at TSMC. We don't use COOS.”
Opinion
Feldman argues TSMC, ASML, and Samsung are effective semiconductor supply chain chokepoints
“I think the chip industry Requires you to go through TSMC, and TSMC requires you to go through ASML or Samsung. I think there are reasonable choke points to manage those challenges.”
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: TSMC raising CapEx budget to $50B amid infinite AI demand
“They just did their earnings call, and the comment was, you know, basically, demand for compute is effectively infinite right now, and they're raising their capex. Remember, these are not kind of, these are folks who say, I'm going to spend fifty billion dolla…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Feldman: TSMC fab expansion speed bottlenecks global AI chip supply
“TSMC can't build fabs fast enough. I think the truth is, is that these are both for TSMC and Samsung. These fabs are the most amazing manufacturing plants on the planet. And, you know, these are 30,000,000,050 billion dollar factories. And the, their ability t…”
Assertion Supported
Grimm: TSMC's Arizona plant yields are slightly outperforming its Taiwan factories
“We're already seeing the early results at the TSMC plant in Arizona that has some pretty good yields that are Slightly outperforming the yields of their Taiwan factories.”