why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wilkinson: Tiny expects soft returns rather than total write-offs
“In terms of loss ratios, I'm not counting on having losses. We occasionally will, and we will have business failures, but they'll more look like softness and bad returns. I doubt we're going to have zeros. It's just not like a venture game. These are generally…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wilkinson: Tiny Capital targets $10M to $100M opportunities in sleepy markets
“We don't want to be in a situation where we're buying a company where billions of dollars are going to flow into competing with it tomorrow. We just think that's too difficult. So that's why we like to choose industries that are sleepy, where nobody really car…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wilkinson: Tiny allows portfolio CEOs to make reversible mistakes
“In the businesses that we own, I'm never going to let a CEO make a sink the boat decision, right? But if it's a two-way door, if it's something where, look, I think this business model idea is hokey, but they've got it in their head as the greatest idea ever. …”
Opinion
Wilkinson: Most tech acquirers flip companies within two to four years
“Our focus is on buying wonderful businesses that'll be profitable, and being able to really have them be sustainable and exist in 10 years, whereas most other acquirers have a thesis around slamming them into another company, or they're gonna flip them in two …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wilkinson: Almost all Tiny businesses grow top and bottom lines 30-40% annually
“And, you know, regardless of our focus on profitability, almost all of our businesses are growing their top line and their bottom line at 30 or 40% a year and doing it profitably.”
Insight
Wilkinson: Hiring executive candidates for unproven potential always fails
“Whereas if you hire somebody for potential, which is what I used to do, I'd meet somebody and go, I love this person's moxie. They're really sharp. They move really fast. They seem to kind of understand marketing. I think they can be a good CMO. We'll grow the…”
Disclosure
Wilkinson: Tiny's remote job board is a feature vulnerable to LinkedIn
“We also own the remote job board business. I have no idea how long that'll exist because LinkedIn can easily come along and start adding remote jobs as a feature. And at the end of the day, our business is kind of a feature, not a product.”
Disclosure
Wilkinson: Tiny Capital exclusively buys or immediately pivots to profitable businesses
“Because that's so part of our DNA, we really exclusively buy profitable businesses or at the very least businesses that can be immediately pivoted to profitability.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wilkinson: Tiny would raise VC if a portfolio company needed $100M burn
“So I would say that if we had a business that was obviously in need of a large amount of capital, And we needed somebody at the table who was willing to take a big risk where we knew that in order to grow it into a billion dollar business, we'd need to burn a …”
Insight
Wilkinson: Tiny Capital prices acquisitions on 5-to-10-year earnings and risk
“What we do is we basically pay a fair price based on where the business is at. And that's typically based on what earnings are expected to come out of the business over the next five to 10 years. And then the other way we think about price is just risk. So yes…”
Disclosure
Wilkinson: Tiny Capital considered buying Meetup.com but passed
“You think about meetup.com, for example, which is a business that we looked at buying, and we just couldn't wrap our heads around it, because ultimately, when it comes to social networks, usually the largest network always wins.”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Tiny Capital has invested in Superhuman, SpaceX, Pitch, and Buffer
“Tiny does also invest in businesses, including the likes of Superhuman, SpaceX, Pitch, and Buffer, to name a few.”
Assertion Supported
Wilkinson: Hundreds of thousands of designers visit Dribbble directly daily
“Every single day, hundreds of thousands of designers wake up Every morning, and they punch Dribbble into the URL bar. You know, we don't need to go out and buy customers. They just naturally organically appear, and because Dribbble is the largest network is ge…”