why aren't all 36 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Vohra: Great product design can mean making software harder to use
“And number seven, and this is the hardest one of them all, balance high perceived skill with high perceived challenge, and this may counter-intuitively mean making your product harder to use.”
Insight
Swulinski: Superhuman hit a growth ceiling by hyper-focusing on tech founders
“At the end of the day, it was very much a, you know, premium product, immediate paywall, and the core ICP is founders, right? And we also experienced this at Whisper, right? Like the early adopter tech founder is not an infinite audience. I think today it's an…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lovinsky: Product teams will stop writing specs for humans within three years
“Write specs for humans. I hope most people aren't writing specs for humans any longer.”
Opinion
Lovinsky: AI and vibe coding will not eliminate the product design phase
“So is the design phase going away? No, like you still have to do that sort of thinking. And there are many Different tools for doing that sort of thinking.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lovinsky: Democratized software creation is an enduring shift, not hype
“I think the idea that everyone can build is not a moment in time hype cycle.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lovinsky: AI will generate 90% of Superhuman's code within 24 months
“In 24 months, I hope it's like 90%.”
Disclosure
Stebbings: 20VC portfolio company will surpass Superhuman's 8-year revenue in 9 months
“We are in a company that is similar to superhuman that will be at More than their revenue in nine months for what it took them eight years to go to.”
Opinion
Harries: Superhuman's Staircase Launch Video Loses Viewer Attention Due to Pacing
“The staircase was beautiful, but you're watching Rahul walk down this beautiful staircase, and by the time he's walked to the bottom, kind of, you've moved on. And so then, in this, like, attention economy, you really need to make it short and snappy.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Vohra: 60 to 70 onboarding specialists can scale a startup to $100M ARR
“Each onboarding specialist can do in the region of 35 to 45 calls per week, and if you do the math, then it turns out that you only need in the region of 60 to 70 onboarding specialists to get to that level of revenue.”
Prediction Held up
Superhuman's 1-on-1 concierge onboarding model can scale to $20M in ARR
“I think it's scalable, yes, for sure. I can see us getting to anywhere between 10 and twenty million dollars of ARR on this basis.”
Insight
Lovinsky: Strict role specialization in tech product design doesn't work
“The idea that like you are a designer and therefore you stay in these lanes and you do these tasks and you don't do engineering work or you don't do product work just like doesn't make sense. Like it doesn't work that way.”
Insight
Lovinsky: Use AI coding agents to co-write product specifications
“You should use the thing that's going to code it to help you write it because it's going to end up creating a version of that output that is more compatible with what it understands to do the work.”
Insight
Lovinsky: Great product leaders are fundamentally exceptional storytellers
“I mean, I think fundamentally a great product leader is a great Storyteller. Someone that is able to understand what the customers actually need, what problem that actually needs to be solved and can form that into a story that is just well understood and well…”
Disclosure
Lovinsky: AI currently generates nearly half of Superhuman's net new code
“We're basically at the point where we're approaching about half.”
Disclosure
Sim: Superhuman founder locked $10M Series A in separate bank account untouched
“Then he raised pre raised a ten million dollar A round. He put it in a separate bank account and said, I'm not going to touch this thing. I'm literally just going to put it there. I don't want to see it. It's in a separate bank account. I'm only going to opera…”
Opinion
Superhuman's manual onboarding process is a sustainable category-creation mechanism
“One of my favorite sustainable growth mechanisms that a lot of people think is unsustainable, and we mentioned Rahul, is the superhuman for onboarding, which is, in my mind, a total category creation play in how they've kind of mechanized onboarding in that wa…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Vohra: Superhuman Will Be a $1B Multi-Product Company by 2025
“In five years' time, we'll be a billion-dollar company, and I think we'll have multiple product lines.”
Insight
Startups should only scale aggressively after sustaining a 40% product-market fit score
“When you're past the 40% threshold and that number is sustaining, even as you're adding more users, the metric isn't going down. That's when you want to push Pedal to metal. That's when you want to grow as fast as you can.”
Assertion Supported
Vohra raised Superhuman's seed round using a single slide with no prototype
“So, you know, no team, no prototype, no traction, just a concept, and one slide of PowerPoint to raise that money.”
Insight
Vohra: Investors must stop pushing early-stage startups for premature growth
“My suggestion to the investment community, especially the investment community that advises early stage teams, would be to stop pushing for premature growth, especially premature growth at a product market fit. I think as an industry, we all already know that …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Superhuman raised its product-market fit score by 10% simply through user segmentation
“And so for us, just by segmenting our product market fit score jumps by 10% from 22% to 32%.”
Disclosure
Superhuman splits quarterly R&D 50/50 between power users and fence-sitters
“So what we do at the start of every quarter is we give ourselves a 50% R&D budget for doubling down on the very disappointed users, the things that people love. And 50% R&D budget, addressing what holds users back, converting those somewhat disappointed users …”
Insight
Accepting preemptive rounds is significantly more efficient than running active fundraising processes
“I have found for superhuman, and we've been executing it this way, that it is actually, if you can pull it off, much, much, much more efficient to not do that and to let the market come to you. So to be always sufficiently well capitalized ahead of your needs …”
Disclosure
Swulinski: TikTok marketing has not worked at any of his three companies
“To be honest, in any of the three kind of core companies that I've been at so far, It hasn't worked yet, but maybe I'll get a chance to change that at Victor.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lovinsky: AI UI homogenization will make human taste and creativity stand out
“I actually think that this will lead to creativity and certainly like taste standing out more than ever, because I think you're going to have this like flattening where you are going to have a lot of things that just like, oh, you know, here we go. It's this, …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Next-gen apps like Notion and Figma will look completely different
“So if I have to create the next notion, the next superhuman, the next figma, My bet is that it certainly is going to look completely different because before I would reach for what I would call like software one point no solutions.”
Insight
High-quality customer service is an unsung competitive advantage for startups
“Companies like Slack and superhuman are not only really active on Twitter and things like that, but have highly engaged high quality customer service too. And that is a really unsung competitive advantage.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Vohra: Next Software Generation Will Hyper-Invest in User Onboarding UI
“And I think it's going to be a sea change. We're going to have this whole generation of products that hyper-invests in not only teaching users what to do next, but also how to do it.”
Assertion Supported
Vohra: Superhuman's Renderer Displays Next Email in Under 32 Milliseconds
“Initially, we set out to show the next conversation in 100 milliseconds or less, because that's roughly the threshold at which point user interfaces feel instant. Well, we now have a new renderer that is three times as fast, and can do this in 32 milliseconds …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Superhuman users process their email twice as fast as Gmail users
“Most of our users actually end up getting through their email about twice as fast as in comparison to Gmail.”
Insight
Asking users who benefits most generates highly effective marketing copy
“So it's a really cool question because it turns out that the people who love your products the most actually end up describing themselves in the answer to that question, but using their own words. And so not only does it tell you who loves your products, it al…”
Disclosure
Superhuman raised all of its funding rounds ahead of standard traction benchmarks
“We were never starved of resources. We always raised a round ahead of traction, so we had our seed when you should normally have nothing, we had our A when you should normally have your seed, and so on.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Early Superhuman surveys showed only 22% of users were very disappointed
“15 or 20% for the early superhuman days, our number was actually 22%, very disappointed, with a whopping 52% of people somewhat disappointed without the product.”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Tiny Capital has invested in Superhuman, SpaceX, Pitch, and Buffer
“Tiny does also invest in businesses, including the likes of Superhuman, SpaceX, Pitch, and Buffer, to name a few.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Superhuman and Roam Research built growth via Twitter superfans
“Super fans of all these products, you know, the cult members of these cults, will show up and overwhelmingly recommend their tool, and I know Superhuman, for instance, benefited a lot from that, and it looks lately like Rome Research is really benefiting from …”
Disclosure
Vohra: Superhuman built a custom keyboard engine to prevent dropped keystrokes
“In Superhuman, we had to build our own keyboard handler to ensure that we never lose keystrokes.”