The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Paik: Substack faces margin compression as top creators negotiate down take rates
“And I would expect that business model to have a leaky bucket at the top or at best get margin compressed at the top. So you have the best, like the people that have the most distribution that are the best for the platform from marketing perspective, dramatica…”
Chris Paik May 9, 2023 ▶ 1:43:24 Chris Paik: How I Raised $400M; Substack's Broken Business Model; Music on TikTok vs IG | E1011 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Boyle: Substack and Patreon Let Creators Out-Earn Legacy Media Institutions
“You get amazing companies like Substack and Patreon and other creator-led companies that allow the creator to make more money than they could in these bloated institutions.”
Katherine Boyle Oct 1, 2020 ▶ 32:34 20VC: What Is Founder Narrative Fit and How to Detect and Invest In It, How To Avoid Consensus Thinking When Investing, Price Sensititivity; When To Pay Up vs Stay Disciplined & From New York Times To General Catalyst; Why Venture and Journalism are Not S
Assertion Supported
Best: Consumers pay more for single Substack writers than Netflix subscriptions
“People are willing to pay more to subscribe to one writer on Substack than they'll pay for, like, Netflix, because this sort of relationship that they've built up over time reading somebody has so much value to them.”
Chris Best Jun 12, 2020 ▶ 17:15 20VC: Substack Founder Chris Best on The Future of Public Journalism, Why The Economics Of Attention Have Been Flipped & Why Micropayments For Content Will Not Work
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