The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Partly supported
Weitzman: Speechify's early hires from Apple and Snapchat failed within three months
“We had two people that we hired from Apple and Snapchat, like very legit people. And they messed up the culture of the company. They would leave at 5:30 p.m. They like didn't live and breathe the company. And in the end, both of them quit after three months.”
Cliff Weitzman May 9, 2026 ▶ 1:03:06 Cliff Weitzman: What I Learned from 100 of the World’s Top CEOs & Why Tokens Will Outspend Salaries · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Snapchat will reach a $1B run rate by end of 2017
“They'll be at a billion-dollar run rate by the end of the year, you know, two hundred fifty million a quarter.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 14, 2017 ▶ 10:47 20VC: Jason Calacanis on The 4 Questions Investors Must Ask Founders, Whether YC Have Scaled Their Process Successfully & Why Early Founder Liquidity Is Good Not Bad
Prediction Held up
New breakout consumer mobile companies will emerge soon
“And I think you'll see new companies emerge. Is it going to happen this year? Is it going to happen next year? It's going to happen soon. It hasn't happened since Snapchat, right? They're the Snapchat, Tinder are the last big consumer companies to emerge. Thos…”
David Tisch Jan 11, 2016 ▶ 20:26 20 VC: David Tisch @ Box Group on The Future of Consumer Mobile, Developing Pattern Recognition and FOMO
Assertion Partly supported
Teare: Series A and B Face Severe Capital Shortage
“There's about five billion dollars available at the seed stage for all the companies every three to five years. There's about one to two billion available at the A and B stage. And then at the growth stage, at the other end, there's more than a hundred billion…”
Keith Teare Apr 16, 2015 ▶ 21:15 20 VC 028: Co-Founding TechCrunch and The Benefits of Not Raising Venture Funding with Keith Teare
Assertion Supported
Lightspeed Invested in Snapchat's Seed Round at a $4.25M Valuation
“At the seed at four and a quarter pre, and, like, here we are looking at 13, and just thinking, well, you know, that's three times higher.”
Jeremy Liew Feb 24, 2021 ▶ 32:40 20VC: The Snapchat Memo: Lightspeed's Jeremy Liew on The 4 Key Elements To Consider When Evaluating A Consumer Social Product, What is Good/Great/World Class For Retention, Usage and Downloads in Consumer Social Today & The Core Insight Development of Eva
Assertion Supported
Snapchat Stories Became the Dominant Format Across All Social Networks
“And with that one insight, starting from first principles, thinking about how people interact with each other, he has changed the course of all social networks, because you can't find, you know, whether it's Twitter, or LinkedIn, or, you know, obviously, Whats…”
Jeremy Liew Feb 24, 2021 ▶ 27:01 20VC: The Snapchat Memo: Lightspeed's Jeremy Liew on The 4 Key Elements To Consider When Evaluating A Consumer Social Product, What is Good/Great/World Class For Retention, Usage and Downloads in Consumer Social Today & The Core Insight Development of Eva
Assertion Supported
Lightspeed's Snapchat Investment Originated From a Partner's Daughter Using the App
“I think it was at light speed, I think, where one of the partner's daughters was on Snapchat permanently, and he was asking her what it was, and that stemmed their investment.”
Spencer Lazar Jun 29, 2015 ▶ 6:59 20 VC 049: VC is Getting Younger with Spencer Lazar @ General Catalyst Partners
Assertion Supported
Wu: Moving Snapchat Discover next to stories completely changed its fate
“We moved Discover one screen to the left, essentially, to be on the same screen as where you see your friends' stories, And that completely changed the fate of Discover.”
Will Wu Feb 2, 2024 ▶ 9:26 Will Wu: Top Five Product Lessons from Creating Snapchat "Discover" and "Chat" | E1111 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Snapchat's Monthly Burn Rate Exceeded $1M Within a Year of Seed
“Burn, within a year from our investment, Burn was in excess of a million dollars a month”
Jeremy Liew Feb 24, 2021 ▶ 30:57 20VC: The Snapchat Memo: Lightspeed's Jeremy Liew on The 4 Key Elements To Consider When Evaluating A Consumer Social Product, What is Good/Great/World Class For Retention, Usage and Downloads in Consumer Social Today & The Core Insight Development of Eva
Assertion Supported
Snapchat Had 50% MoM Growth and 50% 90-Day Retention in 2012
“But I remember seeing 50% month on month growth. 50% DAU to MAU ratios, which suggests very high engagement, and 50% retention after 90 days, which again suggests high engagement, high retention, high growth.”
Jeremy Liew Feb 24, 2021 ▶ 15:45 20VC: The Snapchat Memo: Lightspeed's Jeremy Liew on The 4 Key Elements To Consider When Evaluating A Consumer Social Product, What is Good/Great/World Class For Retention, Usage and Downloads in Consumer Social Today & The Core Insight Development of Eva
Assertion Supported
Snapchat Had 90,000 DAUs on 180,000 Installs When Lightspeed Invested
“So when we met them in, you know, March, April of 2012, they had about 90,000 daily active users off of a base of 180,000 installs.”
Jeremy Liew Feb 24, 2021 ▶ 15:24 20VC: The Snapchat Memo: Lightspeed's Jeremy Liew on The 4 Key Elements To Consider When Evaluating A Consumer Social Product, What is Good/Great/World Class For Retention, Usage and Downloads in Consumer Social Today & The Core Insight Development of Eva
Assertion Supported
Liew: Snapchat grew 50% month-over-month prior to Lightspeed's investment
“It was growing at a 50% per month rate. It was showing incredible retention and incredible engagement.”
Jeremy Liew Feb 19, 2018 ▶ 8:59 20VC: Lightspeed's Jeremy Liew on Being The First Investor in Snapchat, Why The Pessimism Around Consumer Is Wrong & Why Silicon Valley Is An Isolated Bubble and What Can Be Done To Change This
Assertion Partly supported
Benchmark: Snapchat was 12 people in a dining room at Series A
“When we invested in the Series A, the company was essentially a dozen people camping out in the dining room of Evan's dad's house in Los Angeles.”
Mitch Lasky Jul 10, 2017 ▶ 15:45 20VC: Benchmark's Mitch Lasky on The Snapchat Journey From Series A to IPO, Why Small Is Beautiful In Venture Partnerships & Why Venture Is Very Much Like Hollywood
Prediction Held up
A successor to Snapchat will emerge within five years
“I have absolutely no doubt that there will be another, you know, the next version of Snapchat will come along in five years”
Kelly Peeler Feb 5, 2016 ▶ 15:57 20 VC FF 034: What Fintech Can Learn From Uber and The Shift From Financial Organisation To Financial Efficiency with Kelly Peeler, Founder & CEO @ NextGenVest
Prediction Partly held up
Major telcos will launch mobile payments to compete with Facebook and Snapchat
“I think there are much more other big players offering similar services in the next few months, including a lot of the big telcos, because they're not really interested just to let the Facebooks and Snapchats taking away this interesting interaction to the end…”
Marc Bernegger Apr 2, 2015 ▶ 11:36 20 VC 024: Financing Finch with Marc Bernegger of Orange Growth Capital
Assertion Supported
Bobby Murphy Built Early Snapchat Code Off-Hours While at Another Startup
“Evan was partnered with Bobby Murphy, who was a fraternity brother of his from Stanford, who graduated a couple of years earlier. And he'd been the guy who was building all of this and had obviously demonstrated an ability to like build high quality, scalable …”
Jeremy Liew Feb 24, 2021 ▶ 24:31 20VC: The Snapchat Memo: Lightspeed's Jeremy Liew on The 4 Key Elements To Consider When Evaluating A Consumer Social Product, What is Good/Great/World Class For Retention, Usage and Downloads in Consumer Social Today & The Core Insight Development of Eva
Assertion Supported
45% of Snapchat users are under age 25
“45% of Snapchat users are under the age of 25, and they're over there's nearing about two hundred million users with about seven billion video views per day.”
Kelly Peeler Feb 5, 2016 ▶ 14:42 20 VC FF 034: What Fintech Can Learn From Uber and The Shift From Financial Organisation To Financial Efficiency with Kelly Peeler, Founder & CEO @ NextGenVest
Assertion Supported
Bonatsos notes Snapchat's valuation was $10 billion in early 2015
“The latest was ten billion, yeah.”
Niko Bonatsos Feb 5, 2015 ▶ 10:10 20 VC: Niko Bonatsos on Startup Valuations
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