The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
O'Driscoll: AI increasing developer efficiency will lead companies to hire more engineers
“If automation, if 20% spend on tokens, three X's the effectiveness of your developer, then the ROI in developers goes up, so the number of developers will go up.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 7, 2026 ▶ 56:35 Anthropic's Raise & What It Means for Potential IPO? Mag7: Google & Amazon Up, Meta & Microsoft Down · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2031
O'Driscoll: SaaS companies ignoring AI will see multiples fall to 4x-5x
“If you don't get on top of this soon, That 10 X revenues is going to go on a five and four and where the other seven percent growth was are. Fast forward five years, there's really only one or two stories. They get on top of this, they get a third market share…”
Rory O'Driscoll Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 36:08 Thrive Raises New $10B Fund | OpenAI Buys OpenClaw | Stripe at $140B: Is Adyen Wildly Undervalued? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Open · timeframe Nov 2027
O'Driscoll: AI compute token prices drop by 10x every 18 months
“Every turn of the crank on GPUs gives you a three X. Every turn of the crank on LLM optimization gives you another three X. You're looking at 10 X price falling every 18 months.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 7, 2026 ▶ 1:03:36 Anthropic's Raise & What It Means for Potential IPO? Mag7: Google & Amazon Up, Meta & Microsoft Down · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2030
O'Driscoll: Scale VC Will Expand Target Fund Size to 25 Companies
“We typically been at our stage under 20 deals per fund, and we kind of said, you probably need to aim to close it to 25. Just given this dynamic, just nothing's changing at the stage we're at, but success is further away, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 1:04:35 Thinking Machines Co-Founder Joins Meta for $3.5BN, Industry Venture's $665M Acquisition · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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