The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
O'Driscoll: 90% of Prediction Market Business Is Sports Betting
“This is two non-sports betting companies who are doing quote prediction markets where all we talk about is the 10% of the revenue that's political, and 90% of their business is sports betting, but we're not calling it that, and they're just killing it because …”
O'Driscoll: Intercontinental Exchange owns ~20% stake in Polymarket
“ICE as in the owners of NASDAQ, the, I think, Intercontinental Exchange has a big ownership stake in Polymarket. Why that's relevant is that's a company that runs ICE that runs stock trading and, you know, real financial markets taking a significant, I think, …”
Randle: Prediction markets show 70% odds of Tesla-SpaceX merger in two years
“If you look at the poly market Calci odds on a Tesla SpaceX merger, again, you know, not, not that those markets are so big that they're that indicative, but I think the probability that they have on there is something like 70% in the next two years or somethi…”