The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Marks: A period of market distress will occur by 2025
“The bull market is 11 years old. If there's not one in the next five years, that means we'll have gone 16, which would be a record by a wide margin. So my guess is that in the next five years, we'll have a period of distress, and my hope is that Oak Tree will …”
Marks: The market is in an advanced, elevated cycle stage
“I do think that we are in the upper advancing part of the cycle. You know, we've been in, it's been a long economic expansion, a long bull market, in both cases, the longest in history. Valuations of stocks are higher than usual. Interest rates and yield sprea…”