why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Feldman says Elon Musk sold outdated H100 hardware in suboptimal deals
“They got H 100. They didn't get the B 200. They didn't get the most current. They are a generation and a half, maybe two generations behind. So the, this was not a great deal. It was a good deal for Elon. He had them sitting around, but they were forced to tak…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Morin: The market bubble around Nvidia H100 GPUs will burst
“There's going to be a need for inference. Very hard to say whether it will be worth, you know, everybody's money to do it on H 100. That is a bubble that I think will blow some time.”
Assertion Partly supported
Weitzman: Renting an H100 GPU costs 1.5 times more than buying it
“If I was to buy an H 100 for, let's say, 30,000 dollars, that's how much the, kind of, a single card would cost. If I wanted to rent an H 100 for one hour spot instance from GCP, it could cost me five dollars. If I rented it from, like, You know, Azure or AWS,…”
Assertion Supported
Feldman: Claims of a two-year AI chip depreciation cycle are wrong
“I think people are clearly still getting value from H-one hundreds, and that's more than two years, right? So you know If you say it's a two-year depreciation, you're empirically wrong, right? I mean, they are and I think people are still getting value from A-…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Morin: Nvidia will remain dominant in AI inference due to availability
“The thing is these chips are on the market. They're here. I can, you know, out tab on Chrome and get one. That is something that, you know, I don't take lightly. Availability that is right. So I think Nvidia is used to stay at least if not for the H-one hundre…”
Assertion Partly supported
Morin: Nvidia H100 costs 5x A100 price for 2x inference speed
“H 100 comes along and inference is it's worth five times the price. And it may be runs twice in terms of performance on inference. That is on training. It's a lot better, but on inference, it's like maybe twice as fast when it actually, when it came out, it ra…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Morin: Nvidia intentionally smoothed H100 deliveries to prevent revenue spikes
“The supply of H 100 was actually a smooth out over the year so that they decided so that they didn't have like a big, you know, spike in deliveries and then a quarter less, right?”
Assertion Partly supported
Midha: AI Compute Is Non-Fungible Across Nvidia Chip Generations
“Computer is not fungible today. So forget fungibility of compute across different manufacturers, like NVIDIA and AMD. Within a manufacturer, NVIDIA chips, for example. The H 100, the GB 200, the GB 300, these are all completely different chip types. So if you …”
Assertion Supported
Ross: NVIDIA H100 GPUs remain highly profitable to operate despite age
“They're getting close to five years old. And they're still operating well, they're still earning more than their operating costs by quite a bit. You would never deploy an H 100 today, but they're still profitable to run, right?”