why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Foody: Investor Spread False Rumors of China Accessing Mercor Data
“Think of one person that's very prominent who's invested in multiple competitors and just, like, made this tweet about how all of our data was getting accessed by China when it was totally untrue.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mercor scaled from $1M to $500M run rate in 17 months
“We scaled the business from one to five hundred million in the last 17 months, which is the fastest revenue growth of all time. One month faster than Cursor's time.”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: AI data providers Handshake, Mercor, and Surge each surpass $1B revenue
“There's so many providers at a billion dollars plus in revenue. Handshake's over a billion. McCaw's over a billion. Serge is over a billion.”
Assertion Supported
Foody: Mercor did not lose OpenAI as a customer after hack
“False. Our relationship with OpenAI is stronger than ever.”
Assertion Supported
Felicis Offered Mercor $10B Valuation at $400M ARR
“By September of 20, 25 or say October, we were at called four hundred million in revenue run rate. And then Felisa's was like, we want to invest more. And so they gave us a term sheet at a ten billion dollar valuation.”
Assertion Supported
Mercor hit a nine-figure run rate and quadrupled post-Scale deal
“We were already at a nine-figure revenue run rate, and the company quadrupled since the scale acquisition.”
Assertion Supported
Mercor pays $95 per hour compared to $30 at Scale and Surge
“Our average marketplace pay rate is 95 dollars an hour to put that in frame of reference, scale and search generally pay about 30 dollars an hour.”
Assertion Supported
Lazarte: Mercor grew from $1M to $100M revenue in 11 months
“Brex went from like zero to a hundred million dollars in revenue in like in 18 months after launch, and Mercor went from like a million dollars in revenue when I invested to like over a hundred million, like in 11 months.”
Assertion Partly supported
Hiremath: Mercor's entire recruitment and payout pipeline is completely automated
“So on our end, the entire process is automated. So this is everything from a candidate hearing about Mercore and going onto the Mercore platform via job listing, us pulling in their resume, their salary expectations and whatnot. Administering a personalized in…”
Assertion Supported
Foody Denies Rumor of $13 Billion Amazon Acquisition Offer
“That one is false.”
Assertion Supported
Frontier AI Task Automation Rose From 1% to 40% in 12 Months
“On Apex, the Frontier model right now is at about 40%, and 12 months ago the Frontier model was a one, which was scoring one percent.”
Assertion Supported
Felicis Offered Mercor $2B Valuation at $20M ARR
“We're at twenty million in revenue. They ask us, what valuation do we think makes most sense? And I say one to two billion dollars. So they give us a term sheet at a two billion dollar valuation.”
Prediction Held up
Mercor will likely complete a low-dilution financing round soon
“I think that it's likely we'll do a financing soon to answer your question with low dilution, largely because there's a lot of benefits to signaling ourselves as the market leader and RL environments and all of the high complexity data that we produce.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mercor is growing faster at $500M run rate than ever before
“In fact, the company is growing faster now at 500 than it's ever grown before, and so the growth continues accelerating.”
Assertion Supported
Nitski: Top AI models score 50% on Mercor's long-horizon benchmarks
“Well, in our Apex benchmarks, we're getting closer to around 50% of Long Horizon workflows. Top models are scoring around around that much.”
Assertion Contradicted
Nitski: Mercor's total headcount grew over 10x in the last year
“As the headcounts increased, you know, like more than 10 X in the last year, we just want to be careful not to grow one faster than the other.”
Assertion Supported
Foody: Mercor Has a Talent Network of Over Five Million People
“When we have this talent network of over five million people that are able to refer their friends, it's just so much easier for us to find the marginal doctor because we have that enormous talent network that can refer us to their friends.”
Assertion Supported
Foody: Mercor's AI agent has conducted over 5M interviews
“We have our interview question agent that where we've done over five million interviews and ask all the questions in the interviews.”
Assertion Supported
Hiremath: Mercor's AI Interviewer Can Launch in Under 10 Seconds
“You can literally spin up this interview in under 10 seconds.”
Assertion Supported
Hiremath: Top AI labs use Mercor to hire talent for model post-training
“It looks exactly the same as placing someone to work at any company, right? So just like Mercore might work with startups making their first hires or companies hiring in a more traditional full-time capacity. It's the exact same thing for a lot of the large AI…”
Assertion Supported
Hiremath: Mercor's board consists only of its co-founders and Benchmark
“It's, you know, Brendan, Suri, and I, and Benchmark on the board.”