The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
O'Driscoll: 90% of Kalshi's prediction market activity is actually sports betting
“90% of what they do is sports betting.”
Mansour: Kalshi resolves election outcomes 5-7 hours faster than news networks
“You go on the traditional news networks and like, You don't know who won until five, 6:07 hours after Kalshi, right?”
O'Driscoll: 90% of Prediction Market Business Is Sports Betting
“This is two non-sports betting companies who are doing quote prediction markets where all we talk about is the 10% of the revenue that's political, and 90% of their business is sports betting, but we're not calling it that, and they're just killing it because …”
O'Driscoll: Multiple US states are actively suing prediction market Kalshi
“There are currently some states suing Kalshi, saying you really are doing betting, so we should regulate you.”
Mansour: Kalshi sued the CFTC and won in October 2024
“So in 24, we won the fight against the government. We won that, that we sued the government and then we won that fight in October seven, 24.”
Randle: Prediction markets show 70% odds of Tesla-SpaceX merger in two years
“If you look at the poly market Calci odds on a Tesla SpaceX merger, again, you know, not, not that those markets are so big that they're that indicative, but I think the probability that they have on there is something like 70% in the next two years or somethi…”
Stebbings: Kalshi announced a $1B raise at an $11B valuation
“In the last week, they announced their one billion dollar raise and an eleven billion dollar valuation.”
Mansour: Kalshi secured exclusive media partnerships with CNN and CNBC
“So this week we've announced well, we found the first and then the second large scale news network partnership with the prediction market. So we announced CNN exclusive partnership and then CNBC, the same thing the next day.”
Mansour: Kalshi's first hire was former CFTC official Jeff Bandman
“The first person on the company was Jeff Bandman who's, who's actually pretty publicized now, which was really cool. I love that. But Jeff, you know, is the only lawyer that basically took up our kind of like gays at the time. And he was ex CFTC.”