why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
US government owns 10% of Intel, Nvidia and SoftBank 5% each
“American government owns 10% of Intel. Nvidia and SoftBank own five percent each.”
Opinion
Khachab: Europe should subsidize TSMC and NVIDIA instead of Intel
“First of all, Intel is the wrong company to fund. So the first step you ask me is like, put it to the right company. Put it to Taiwan Semiconductor. Put it to NVIDIA. People that can actually produce GPUs.”
Insight
AI agent execution runs on CPUs, benefiting Intel and AMD
“Agent loops, agent harnesses are all running on CPUs. The tokens are produced by the frontier models on GPUs, but whatever work, like, let's say like Claude generates a coding script that decides to download 500 files from different websites and then You know,…”
Insight
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Nvidia are repeating Microsoft and Intel's 90s playbook
“Fast forward to today, the company that's dominating everything is OpenAI. They're the Microsoft of today. They have the consumers. They have the eyeballs, right? They're building this new monopoly, and the equivalent of Intel is now Nvidia.”
Assertion Supported
Feldman: Intel Kept 75% Market Share Despite a Decade of Failures
“Intel has made, until hiring LibBoo, prior to that, nearly a decade of Catastrophic decisions. Right? And they still own 80% of the x-eighty-six market. 75% of the market. Right? AMD's worked up to like 25% or 30%. And after a decade of screwing up.”
Opinion
Nejatian: Stripe-Shopify relationship is the most value-creating in software history
“And this Stripe-Shopify relationship Is likely the most value creating relationship in the history of software. It would have been Intel, Microsoft before Intel and Microsoft had had divorce is too hard a word, but had like the thing they did.”
Insight
Helmer: Andy Grove's '10x better' product rule is a poor startup framework
“The 10 X came from Andy Grove, the CEO of Intel, and that's what he observed in the semiconductor was that for a generation to be different, it had to be 10 X. And in his space, that was probably a very reasonable empirical statement, but it is no guide in gen…”
Assertion Supported
Intel completes first equity raise since 1971 IPO for TerraFab consortium
“Intel is part of the TerraFab consortium in such a way, and I just saw it today. I did not know this. Intel completed an equity round, which I read someone, I haven't verified it. It was the first time they raised equity since, like, they went public in seven …”
Prediction Held up
Intel and Qualcomm investments will reduce drone hardware consolidation around DJI
“I think that's going to change over time. You know, we're seeing more and more investment from chipset makers like Intel and Qualcomm trying to make it easier for more OEMs to bring drones to market. We're seeing significant contributions to open source flight…”
What-if
Lux Capital Missed a $4B Exit by Selling Nervana to Intel Early
“In that case, I think we would have loved, collectively, amongst the other syndicate investors as well, that maybe we waited for You know, a year or two, because we probably, instead of selling for four hundred million to Intel, could have sold for four billio…”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Silicon Valley was founded on spite, from Fairchild to Intel
“First of all, Silicon Valley was founded on spite in the sense of if you look at, you know, Fairchild, if you look at Shockley, all those guys spun out the fair and did fair and Fairchild, which was a spite deal. And then they left Fairchild because they could…”
Disclosure
Wolfe: Intel acquired Lux-backed Nervana Systems for $400M within a year
“And it leads us to a company called Nirvana Systems, and we fund those guys, and within a year, they're bought by Intel for four hundred million dollars.”