why aren't all 30 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Disclosure
Arison disclosed conservative Republican views to Grindr board before becoming CEO
“You know, when I was taking this job, I actually told the big shareholders. At this point, Grant was still private, so they're kind of the owners, like, look, I'm a conservative guy. I'm Republican. I'm also gay. I'm very social like, on on these social issues…”
Opinion
Arison: Grindr deserves social network valuation multiples over dating app comps
“We shouldn't be just comped to dating apps when they talk about kind of what the multiple on the stock should be. That we should be comped as much as to social network products and comps as much as we're comped to dating products.”
Insight
Arison: Making broad political statements distracts CEOs from serving stakeholders
“Broader political topics actually don't make statements on right now because it is not my job. My job is to be the best CEO I can be for Grindr, and things I might say that distract me from being Doing that job and providing my users with the most awesome expe…”
Disclosure
Arison: Grindr does not focus on monthly active user growth
“We don't really focus on MOW Grow, frankly, at all.”
Assertion Partly supported
Grindr per-user daily message volume surpasses WhatsApp
“And we had a hundred and twenty five billion approximately messages sent in the app last year. That's about 50 messages Per person per day which is more than WhatsApp messaging in a given day per, per user.”
Assertion Supported
Arison: Grindr has under 150 employees and $2M revenue per head
“Grindr has less than a 150 full time employees. We are very, very efficient. You know, our revenue per head is very high. It's over two million bucks per full time employee.”
Assertion Supported
Arison: Grindr spends zero dollars on paid user acquisition
“We don't spend any money on marketing, and the reason is, is we don't do any acquisition marketing. So our marketing is focused on, on brand building, and we do a lot of stuff in social, narrow casting to, again, gay and bi men. But it's a lot of storytelling …”
Prediction Held up
Arison: Grindr will launch 'RightNow' feature globally in late 2025
“The really big product we're going to be launching, you know, worldwide sometime towards the end of next year, it's now live in two markets today. It's called RightNow, which is actually making the hookup experience better and more easy for a user to access.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
40% of gay relationships in the US start on Grindr
“It's still, it's now the largest source of gay relationships in the United States. So four in 10 gay relationships start on Grindr.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Arison: Grindr overhead costs will remain flat as revenue reaches $1B
“Because we're a public company and all the costs that public companies have, we still have to have, and we'll have them at 300 plus million and we'll have them at a billion in revenue. And they're mostly going to be the same. Like the accounting team is not go…”
Assertion Contradicted
Arison: Grindr's entire engineering team quit after its 2020 acquisition
“And even more crazy, the entire engineering team, which was at this point was in Taiwan, quit when the transaction happened.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Arison: Healthcare offerings will generate higher revenue for Grindr than travel
“I think if healthcare works it will be very large, because if you just do the math on it, right, like, a compound ED medication costs a hundred to a 130 dollars per month subscription and, you know, people, I think, average Kind of lifetime value of a user is …”
Insight
Arison: Gay culture uniquely fosters friendships originating from hookups
“It's very not common for people to hook up and then develop a friendship in the straight world. It's very common in the gay world for that to be the case.”
Disclosure
Arison: Grindr is expanding into healthcare, travel, and professional networking
“Building out these new use cases, the, what we call Gaberhood expansion use cases, like healthcare and wellness, like travel. I think there are others that we are thinking about. I think networking and jobs is another really big opportunity for us as well, kin…”
Assertion Partly supported
Arison: Grindr shipped 500k CDC home HIV tests, 30% first-timers
“A year and a half ago, we started working with the CDC to allow people to order an HIV test to be shipped to their home to get an HIV test. We've sent out about half a million tests since then, which is really incredible. And more importantly, 30% of people wh…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Arison: Grindr will launch new products using lean 1-2 person partnership teams
“We're going to launch a bunch of new stuff this year, but a lot of it's going to be done through partnerships with one or two people working on those things.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Arison: Grindr will not hoard cash for potential acquisitions
“So one thing I can say is very clearly, we're not going to hoard cash for acquisitions. If there are acquisitions that are interesting at some point that we want to do, We'll, we'll deal with that at that point, but I don't think it's the right thing to do to …”
Assertion Supported
Arison: Ads represent 15% of Grindr revenue without app store fees
“Ads are about 15% of our revenue in, in total, but obviously on a margin basis, they're even higher percentage, because it's a very profitable part of the business, and we don't have to pay the Apple and Google taxes on that revenue.”
Assertion Contradicted
Arison: Grindr was the first forced divestiture ordered by CFIUS
“And so they forced the divestiture and was like the first CFIUS forced divestiture and definitely the most prominent one that had ever happened.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Arison: Grindr can hit 3-year targets without Tinder's payer conversion rate
“We don't need to be at anywhere near Tinder's pay penetration to hit our, say, three-year financial targets.”
Disclosure
Grindr spends company funds advocating for global marriage equality
“We are really devoted to marriage equality around the world, and we spend money on that, and we will always be very comfortable saying things about that topic.”
Assertion Contradicted
Arison: Grindr has over 95% brand recognition in the US
“We have a 95 plus percent name recognition in the US.”
Assertion Supported
Arison: Grindr's payer penetration rate is slightly over 7%
“Our pair penetration is about a little over seven percent.”
Assertion Supported
Arison: Grindr generates no revenue from HIV tests or PrEP
“We don't make money on on HIV tests cause CDC actually sends those to people for free. And we don't make money on prep cause we don't sell prep. There are companies that do sell prep. We just do education and marketing plan.”
Assertion Supported
Grindr users average one hour per day on the app
“People spend on average an hour a day in the app, which is really remarkable.”
Prediction Held up
Arison: Grindr aims to reduce leverage to 1.5x-2x EBITDA soon
“We have debt. We're paying down that debt. We want to get down to 1.5 to two X. EBITDA on, on the debt. We'll get there soon, but not yet.”
Assertion Supported
Arison: 25% of Grindr users travel in any given week
“25% of Grindr users, so one in four is traveling in any given week which is a really remarkable thing to think about, given that, you know, in the U.S., average person It takes two vacations a year in a car to visit like family, 60 miles away or something.”
Disclosure
Arison gives feedback in writing to prevent withholding criticism
“So I give people like very long written documents that are like really detailed that I give examples, et cetera. And then I like send it to them in advance and then I sit down with them and go through them, which is not the, maybe necessarily the best thing fo…”
Assertion Supported
Grindr reaches over 14 million active monthly users
“I mean, we're at over fourteen million Active monthly users now.”
Assertion Supported
Arison: Grindr went public one month after he became CEO
“I showed up in October and we're going public in November.”