The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Disclosure
Stebbings: 20VC Lost Hundreds of Millions Passing on Deel Over Ownership Targets
“I look at ours, and our biggest mistake, and I can look at Deal, 11 Labs, I can look at Granola, and Starcloud, Fractile, could have done them all, but would have had one to two percent, and all of them we turned down purely for ownership, and that is hundreds…”
Harry Stebbings Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 28:56 The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Disclosure
Stebbings: Passed on Granola, predicting no one would fund them
“Granada, Granada, I was the first VC they met, and I turned them down. I sent my partner a note saying someone should set up a JustGiving page for them, because no one will give them money.”
Harry Stebbings May 2, 2026 ▶ 59:45 Inside Clay's Sales Playbook | Becca Lindquist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Mignano: Accumulated context is the primary moat for AI application startups
“What I've also learned about AI products and Granola is that context is extremely valuable, right? If Granola gets inside of your organization and everyone in the organization starts using it and producing and accumulating all of this amazingly rich and valuab…”
Mike Mignano Jul 6, 2026 ▶ 41:06 Why Now is the Time for the App Layer | Why Startups Should be TokenMaxxing | Mike Mignano, USV · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Stebbings: I passed on Granola and told the founder to launch a GoFundMe
“Not only did we not invest, we said you should set up a GoFundMe page.”
Harry Stebbings Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 1:02:54 20VC: The Startup Adding $1M ARR Every Week | Competing Against OpenAI's Codex and Claude Code: Who Wins | Why Gemini is Failing and GPT-5 Is Winning | Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | The Ugly Truth About AI Coding with Zach Lloyd, Warp
Disclosure
Stebbings passed on Granola due to unformed product idea
“And Granola honestly was a lack of imagination. Chris I saw was great, but like, it was a very unformed idea. And I was like, I can't just do it.”
Harry Stebbings Jul 6, 2026 ▶ 54:26 Why Now is the Time for the App Layer | Why Startups Should be TokenMaxxing | Mike Mignano, USV · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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