The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Altman: Competing AI labs will successfully replicate OpenAI's o1 model
“After, after a research lab does something, even if you don't know exactly how they did it, it's, I won't say easy, but it's doable to go off and copy it, and you can see this in the replications of GPT-IV, and I'm sure you'll see this in replications of O-one…”
Acharya: Token cost for GPT-4 has dropped 100x since release
“The cost of actually a token on GPT-IV has, you know, gone down a hundred X since the model was released.”
Mollick: Unprompted GPT-4 math tutoring led to lower test scores
“The first randomized control trial we have, I have some of my colleagues at Wharton was giving GPT-IV people for math tutoring in Turkey. Now, they didn't do a huge amount of, like, you know, it was an assigned class, and they used the system, but it turns out…”
Hankes: OpenAI Delayed GPT-4 Release by Five Months for Safety Testing
“On GPT four, we saw the demo in the fall. They didn't just release the product then they took, I think four or five months To test and learn about safety in the edges of the model and then ultimately released it to the world.”
Rauch: Llama is nowhere near as capable as GPT-4
“Right now, Llama is not as good as GPT-IV. Not even close.”
Lebrun: LIMA fine-tuned on 1,000 examples beats GPT-3, rivals GPT-4
“Three weeks ago, there was a paper about Lima. So, so this Lima paper shows that with only 1000 question and answer examples, so very, very small data sets they get something for, use for fine tuning, so the second stage, they get something that performs bette…”