The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

2statements match

2resolved → 0open claims → 0supported → 2contradicted →

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up

Socher: An open-source GPT-4 equivalent will arrive by end of 2023

“I predicted that we'll have a GPT-IV equivalent model Before the end of the year, that's open source.”

Richard Socher Nov 24, 2023 ▶ 8:42 The Ultimate AI Roundtable: What Happens Now in AI, Why Google are Vulnerable | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Prediction Didn’t hold up

Socher: Open-source GPT-4 equivalent model will launch before end of 2023

“I predicted that we'll have a GBD four equivalent model before the end of the year. That's open source. Of course, GBD four keeps getting better and better. So my prediction was for the version we had like a few months ago,”

Richard Socher Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 28:00 Richard Socher: The 3 Biggest Barriers to Building AGI; AI Startups vs Incumbents | E1050 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

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The Ledger

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