why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Casado: OpenAI Lost Its Early Leads In Code, Image, And Video Generation
“OpenAI was the first to code, right? With GitHub Copilot. I mean, they provided the weights. As far as I know, and they lost that. And they were first to image with Dali, and they lost that. And they were the first to video with Sora. And as far as I can tell,…”
Opinion
Lloyd: Autocomplete has stronger enterprise PMF than agentic AI
“In the enterprise market, I actually think the thing that has most product market fit is like autocomplete. Which is not the sexiest type of AI. So it's not agentic AI. It's like cursor's original product or even co-pilot.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tenev: AI generates the majority of new code at Robinhood
“We've moved from, you know, GitHub Copilot, which is an auto-complete system, to Cursor, and now things like Windsurf, where, I mean, nearly all of the code is, is written by AI, and the adoption rate within engineering for us is, You know, close to a hundred …”
Opinion
Torres: Cursor's Fast Revenue Growth Is Fragile Due to Low Switching Costs
“The cursors and all that stuff, like you can easily switch to like windsurf and you can switch to this and you can go back to copilot and like, so that revenue could disappear. This is a brand new phenomenon and we do not know how it plays out.”
Insight
Masad: Enterprise customers rarely replace AI coding tools unless they fall behind
“Cursor has done well at enterprise sales. And enterprise is a very sticky customer and once they adopt something, it has to really fall tremendously behind, perhaps like GitHub Copilot, in order for people to replace it.”