The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Partly supported
Paley: Top Company Never Matched Its Founding Year's Hottest Theme
“Never, not the last 20 years, has the most valuable company born in any single year, right, valuable as of now, been this in the theme that was hot in that year. It has not happened.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 6:23 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Paley's study of 71 IPOs shows capital raised doesn't drive startup success
“We looked at 71 IPOs over the last five years, the 71 tech IPOs over the last five years. To study whether venture capital in the outlier cases could be argued to have really driven greater success. And it turned out there was effectively no correlation betwee…”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 10:42 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
Prediction Held up
Founder Collective Will Never Lead Follow-On Rounds in Fund II
“In our second fund, we will never lead a follow-on.”
David Frankel Nov 16, 2015 ▶ 6:23 20 VC 088: David Frankel @ Founder Collective: The Most Founder Friendly VC in Existence
Assertion Contradicted
Founder Collective never participates in follow-on rounds or pro-rata
“Founder Collective only does first checks. They never do any pro rata afterwards, period.”
Gokul Rajaram Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 56:08 Gokul Rajaram: How to Analyse for Durability and Defensibility in a World of AI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
Frankel: Founder Collective has backed 25 billion-dollar companies
“I've got 25 companies worth over a billion dollars, and some of them are better known than others.”
David Frankel Feb 7, 2022 ▶ 21:57 20VC: Biggest Lessons and Challenges Building One of the Most Successful Seed Funds, How To Manage Investor Psychology, Self-Doubt and Insecurity & The Secret to Truly Successful Venture Partnerships with David Frankel, Co-Founder @ Founder Collective
Prediction Held up
Frankel: Team venture investing "kills" solo angel investing
“I would never go back, ever go back to Angel. I think that that working as a team with my partners just kills Angel investing”
David Frankel Sep 17, 2018 ▶ 6:52 20VC: Lessons Learned Scaling PillPack from Seed to Amazon Acquisition, Why Investors Should Spend More Time Assessing Human Capital Risk Taken by Founders & The Right Way To Think About Capital Efficiency in Scaling with David Frankel, Managing Partner @
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