why aren't all 26 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Powers: High employee turnover was necessary for UGG's 2016 turnaround
“We had a lot of turnover at that time, which I think, you know, was probably the right thing to do. Definitely the right thing to do.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Powers: Deckers can organically add billions in revenue over five years
“We feel we have a path where we could, you know, Add billions onto our revenue today over the next five years organically, which is the best way to grow a business because it's built in.”
Opinion
Dave Powers: Deckers prefers tech partnerships over major acquisitions
“We're not a technology company. You know, you've seen folks like Under Armour and Lululemon acquire technologies. It's hard to do and keep it going and do it right. And I think we're better off just partnering with brands like that versus making major acquisit…”
Insight
Powers: Young brands risk being short-lived without legacy archives to rely on
“I think it's really the legacy brands, you know, newer brands, they don't have that longevity or the history, the archives that a lot of these luxury brands do, and they can reach back to their history as a way to go forward. If you're a young brand and you do…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Powers: Hoka customers buy two to three pairs per year
“When we used to sell UGG Once every two or three years, a 160 dollar price point. Now we're selling Hoka two to three times a year at a 160 dollars set price point.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dave Powers: Performance footwear will see next-level super sneakers over 5-10 years
“So I think you're going to start seeing, you know, really next level super sneakers. I mean, look at the one Adidas just launched, you know, it's meant to be worn once one marathon and then it's no good. Right. But people are breaking records in it. So it's, w…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Powers: UGG increased customer purchase frequency to 2-3 times annually
“Traditionally, it would buy one boot every two and a half years, right? The classic boot. And now we have people buying two or three times a year because they're buying different products.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Powers: Uncontrolled retail distribution damaged the UGG brand long-term
“We got in a lot of trouble back in the days with UGG because we just sold our basic product to everybody and just let them do what they wanted with it. And that worked for a while, but then it really hurt the brand.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dave Powers: Removing a bad culture fit takes 6 to 12 months
“It takes, you know, six to 12 months, but usually what happens is kind of organ rejection. It's not me identifying somebody. It's the, you know, it's the company and the employee saying, hey, this person is just not, you know, able to work the way we work. The…”
Disclosure
Deckers is actively seeking a buyer for Sanuk
“We just announced that we're going to you'll look for a buyer for one of our brands to nook.”
Assertion Supported
Deckers told Wall Street in 2016 it would prioritize profitability over revenue
“We told the street we're going to pull back on revenue growth, but we're going to improve our profit profile.”
Insight
Dave Powers: High pricing protects luxury brands from over-ubiquity
“Luxury in a way has its own built-in defense mechanism where there's a certain type of consumer That can afford that product. And they're the ones that are wearing it around town, you know, and where it's where you're seeing it. So it kind of stays up in that …”
Insight
Dave Powers: Sustainable brand success requires an iconic hero product
“They just allow you to do so many things because of the scale, the volume, the margin, the consistency of the business. If you don't have that, it's really hard to run a successful, you know, sustainable business.”
Assertion Contradicted
Dave Powers: UGG has grown into a $2 billion-plus brand
“And so we've been able to tap into those two insights to build what we are now, a two billion dollar plus brand.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Powers: Rebuilding UGG's market positioning in Europe took five years
“And we lost the specialness of the brand, and it took us five years in the UK and Europe to get that back.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dave Powers: Hoka and On hold small global market shares with huge upside
“Between the two of us, our market shares are still relatively small globally. There's so, so much potential for both brands to do incredibly well.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Powers: Teva offers higher global awareness and margins than potential acquisitions
“And honestly, when we looked at Teva and compared to all these, you know, these brands that we could have potentially purchased, Teva has the best global awareness. It has the best margins.”
Assertion Supported
Powers: Hoka had to pull back inventory and close accounts early on
“We actually went through a period early on where we had a lot of markdown inventory in the channel. We were selling off price to people, and it was because we were trying to chase a growth number. So fortunately, we recognized that early on, and we pulled back…”
Prediction Held up
Powers: Deckers avoids consumer-facing corporate branding, focusing Deckers name on investors
“Well, you know, we're holding company for the brands, right? We're not expecting or trying to get consumers to know Deckers. That's not our goal. We want investors to know Deckers, and they do, but we're not pushing the Decker's name to consumers.”
Disclosure
Powers: Hoka delivers Deckers' highest initial margin, followed by UGG
“Initial margin is Hoka. But UGG is a close second. I mean, they're both very, very healthy in the industry.”
Assertion Partly supported
Powers: Direct-to-consumer is Deckers' most profitable channel
“Our DDC channel is our most profitable channel, right? Margin and profit.”
Disclosure
Powers: Deckers is developing a loyalty and auto-delivery program for Hoka
“And we need the loyalty program that you can get automatic deliveries or the next big launch earlier or special treatment as a loyalty member. And that's something we're working on.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Powers: Hoka rejects more wholesale retail accounts than it accepts
“We say no to more, you know, more accounts than we say yes to.”
Assertion Supported
Dave Powers: Oprah's endorsement triggered 5 years of intense UGG demand
“At that time, yes. Oh yeah. I mean, they were chasing business. It was a freight strain, and they were just trying to keep up for a good five years.”
Assertion Partly supported
Powers: Deckers operates at an 18% operating profit margin
“You know, the good news is we have very healthy profit margins. You know, we're in 18 Percent operating profit.”
Assertion Supported
Dave Powers: Deckers' best decision was reallocating capital to Hoka and Ugg in 2016
“You know, what myself and the finance leaders at the time did in 16 and 17 would say, actually, no, you don't all need that money. These two things need that money. And we're going to reset. That was the biggest reallocation success that we had.”