why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ward: Carta projects $600M base ARR up to $10B revenue by 2025
“Our base case, if none of our bets work out, we think we'll be around six hundred million in ARR, growing 50 to 70% year over year as a software business. If some of our more financial products that we're working on hit, We have a broad spectrum. These are hig…”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Top decile seed valuations surged 6x from new AI categories
“Ordinary pricing has gone up 10, 20%, but top decile pricing has gone up six X or something like that, and that's really just a function of there are a class of bet that, frankly, didn't exist five years ago.”
Assertion Contradicted
Sim: Seed valuations were the only startup stage to increase since 2021
“There's data from Carta that shows you that if you look at priced rounds from Q one of 20, 21 compared to, let's say Q four of last year, the only round that increased in valuation Was the seed round”
Assertion Supported
Hashtag Angels and Carta study finds women hold only 9% of equity
“When we partnered with Carta to measure the gap on the cap table, aka the gap table, we found that only nine percent of equity value goes towards women, and that's looking at over 6000 companies, 15,000 founders, 180,000 employees”
Assertion Supported
Messerschmidt: Carta allocated over $8M in equity to correct gender inequality
“He measured his own cap table and he realized that it was not equal. And so he took swift action and he allocated more than eight million dollars in additional equity awards to women to correct the inequalities.”
Assertion Supported
Hsu: Slack and Carta didn't build dedicated data teams until Series C
“I just want to think back to Slack and Carter, two companies that we've worked with, you know, in the last couple of years, you know, both of them didn't really start investing in this Full bore, you know, well into about the series C, if I remember correctly.…”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: The top 5% of seed rounds now hit $200M valuations
“The top five percent of seed rounds hit two hundred million dollar valuation.”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Carta data shows dilution per round is decreasing
“The only fact-based comment I'll make is, you know, the data from Carter, which is always excellent, says that dilution per round is going down.”
Assertion Partly supported
Stebbings: Carta Data Shows Series A Funding Rounds Down 81%
“Carter just announced that Series A's are down 81%.”
Assertion Supported
Henry Ward: Carta serves 10,000 companies, adding 400 monthly
“You know, we have 10,000 companies. We're acquiring about 400 a month today.”
Assertion Supported
Carta was not the first cap table management company
“And example, I'll use the Henry where he didn't start the first cap table company and nor was he actually building a cap table company from day one. And there, there'd been a dozen or so companies over the last two decades that had been started to go after thi…”