The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ward: Carta projects $600M base ARR up to $10B revenue by 2025
“Our base case, if none of our bets work out, we think we'll be around six hundred million in ARR, growing 50 to 70% year over year as a software business. If some of our more financial products that we're working on hit, We have a broad spectrum. These are hig…”
Henry Ward Apr 12, 2019 ▶ 38:32 20VC: Carta Founder Henry Ward on Why The Best Companies Are Not Product Led But Distribution Led, 3 Requirements Needed For A New Market/Investment To Be Exciting and Why Small Markets Are So Attractive
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Top decile seed valuations surged 6x from new AI categories
“Ordinary pricing has gone up 10, 20%, but top decile pricing has gone up six X or something like that, and that's really just a function of there are a class of bet that, frankly, didn't exist five years ago.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 16, 2026 ▶ 1:03:03 Zuckerberg Back on X Challenging Codex & Claude Code | SK Hynix’s $26BN IPO · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
Sim: Seed valuations were the only startup stage to increase since 2021
“There's data from Carta that shows you that if you look at priced rounds from Q one of 20, 21 compared to, let's say Q four of last year, the only round that increased in valuation Was the seed round”
Ed Sim Jan 10, 2024 ▶ 8:48 Ed Sim & Jamin Ball: Did Figma Kill M&A Markets & 3 Requirements to IPO in 2024 | E1101 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Hashtag Angels and Carta study finds women hold only 9% of equity
“When we partnered with Carta to measure the gap on the cap table, aka the gap table, we found that only nine percent of equity value goes towards women, and that's looking at over 6000 companies, 15,000 founders, 180,000 employees”
Katie Stanton Jan 27, 2020 ▶ 24:50 20VC: Moxxie Ventures' Katie Stanton on What It Takes To Raise A First Time Fund As A Solo GP, The Entrance of Multi-Stage Funds Into Seed Rounds and The Inverse Relationship of Those That Fund Diverse Managers and Those That Say They Do
Assertion Supported
Messerschmidt: Carta allocated over $8M in equity to correct gender inequality
“He measured his own cap table and he realized that it was not equal. And so he took swift action and he allocated more than eight million dollars in additional equity awards to women to correct the inequalities.”
Jana Messerschmidt Sep 2, 2019 ▶ 35:21 20VC: How Founders Can Gain Leverage in Fundraising Negotiations, The Metrics You Need To Raise Your Series A in Consumer & What We Have To Change About Cap Table Construction with Jana Messerschmidt, Partner @ Lightspeed Venture Partners
Assertion Supported
Hsu: Slack and Carta didn't build dedicated data teams until Series C
“I just want to think back to Slack and Carter, two companies that we've worked with, you know, in the last couple of years, you know, both of them didn't really start investing in this Full bore, you know, well into about the series C, if I remember correctly.…”
Jonathan Hsu Jun 17, 2019 ▶ 16:34 20VC: Why Historical Loss Ratios Are Simply Too High, Why Data Is The #1 Most Important Piece When Evaluating Effective Reserve Allocation & Why Nothing Is Truly Defensible Today with Jonathan Hsu, Co-Founder and General Partner @ Tribe Capital
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: The top 5% of seed rounds now hit $200M valuations
“The top five percent of seed rounds hit two hundred million dollar valuation.”
Harry Stebbings Jul 16, 2026 ▶ 1:01:35 Zuckerberg Back on X Challenging Codex & Claude Code | SK Hynix’s $26BN IPO · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Carta data shows dilution per round is decreasing
“The only fact-based comment I'll make is, you know, the data from Carter, which is always excellent, says that dilution per round is going down.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 20:42 Enterprises Fear Frontier Models | Sam Altman Offers Trump 5% of OpenAI | DeepSeek Builds Own Chips · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Stebbings: Carta Data Shows Series A Funding Rounds Down 81%
“Carter just announced that Series A's are down 81%.”
Harry Stebbings May 15, 2025 ▶ 8:08 OpenAI, SBF & Perplexity: What VCs Know That You Don’t · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Henry Ward: Carta serves 10,000 companies, adding 400 monthly
“You know, we have 10,000 companies. We're acquiring about 400 a month today.”
Henry Ward Apr 12, 2019 ▶ 22:48 20VC: Carta Founder Henry Ward on Why The Best Companies Are Not Product Led But Distribution Led, 3 Requirements Needed For A New Market/Investment To Be Exciting and Why Small Markets Are So Attractive
Assertion Supported
Carta was not the first cap table management company
“And example, I'll use the Henry where he didn't start the first cap table company and nor was he actually building a cap table company from day one. And there, there'd been a dozen or so companies over the last two decades that had been started to go after thi…”
Sumit Gajri Jan 17, 2020 ▶ 16:32 20VC: Portfolio Construction, Optimising SPVs, Opportunity Investing "Between Rounds", Being Distribution-Centric Over Product-Centric and Capital Concentration Within Funds With Sumeet Gajri, Chief Strategy Officer @ Carta
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