why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
What-if
Salguero: ButcherBox would be out of business if it raised venture capital
“Actually, I think we'd be out of business if we raised money because we would have raised money in 2015 when it was hot with big valuations, we probably would have raised again. And then when all the money like would not had had to build a profitable business …”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Stebbings: ButcherBox will reach $1B revenue and $3B-$4B EV in 3-4 years
“I had the founder of ButcherBox on the show recently, and ButcherBox does six hundred million in revenue, very high quality revenue, the leading brand and category in the space. If you project out to a three, four years time, they'll be at a billion, enterpris…”
Disclosure
Salguero: ButcherBox outsources all farming, processing, shipping, and customer service
“We don't own our backbone. So we don't own the farms. We don't own the slaughterhouses. We don't own the cutting facilities. We don't own the distribution centers. We don't own last mile shipping. We don't own customer service.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Salguero: ButcherBox used Trump tax policies to accelerate equipment depreciation
“Some of Trump's policies, certainly on the tax side, were very helpful for the business. I think Trump in general, no, not helpful for the business. A huge distraction, a huge amount of, like, social unrest and concern and but from, like hey, were we able to d…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Salguero: ButcherBox revenue will top $1 billion within five years
“I think we'll be north of a billion in five years, but I'm not sure I'll be like, okay, I'm done.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Salguero: ButcherBox historically experienced approximately 1% weekly subscriber churn
“Churn-wise, for a long time, we're better than this now, but for a long time, we were about one percent. This is an aggregate, not for a month. Or month or year one. We were about one percent churn per week, and that we thought was really good.”
Disclosure
Salguero: ButcherBox is looking to acquire distressed perishable subscription businesses
“Yes, we are a buyer. We would love to find distressed subscription, ideally perishable shipment businesses. We are looking for them.”
Disclosure
Salguero: Founder still owns over 70% of ButcherBox
“North of 70.”
Prediction Held up
Salguero: ButcherBox projects $600 million in revenue for 2023
“We'll do about six hundred million dollars in revenue this year.”
Disclosure
Salguero: Out-of-home advertising was ButcherBox's worst-performing acquisition channel
“Out of home, the out of home being like billboards and bus wraps and that type of stuff. I think you could argue though, that we didn't give that a fair shot, but That would be the worst performing thing that we've seen.”
Assertion Supported
Salguero: ButcherBox grew from $300K to $105M in revenue in four years
“So we did like 300 grand the first year, five million the second year, 33 and then a 105.”
Assertion Supported
Salguero: ButcherBox reached $100M in revenue within three years with 50 employees
“Three years after I started ButcherBox, we were like north of a hundred million dollars. I had, I don't know, 50 employees.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Salguero: Hiring a specialized buyer reduced ButcherBox's chicken costs by 70%
“We brought in a meat guy a year and a half into the business and we're like, here's what we're doing. And he's like, I mean, I remember the price that we were paying for a pound of organic chicken. He was like, I can get three pounds for the same price. You wa…”
Disclosure
Salguero: ButcherBox built and operates two in-house dry ice factories
“We actually two years ago started a dry ice factory. We now have two.”
Prediction Held up
Salguero: ButcherBox is not pursuing an exit or IPO
“Focus on the exit. Like I'm not trying to sell the company. I'm not trying to go public.”
Assertion Supported
Salguero: ButcherBox generates $3M in annual revenue per employee
“No, like three million. 600,000,200, yeah.”
Prediction Held up
Salguero: ButcherBox is migrating its e-commerce platform to Shopify in 2023
“We're actually moving this year, we're moving to Shopify”
Assertion Supported
Salguero: ButcherBox launched with $215K raised on Kickstarter
“We started with a Kickstarter campaign where we raised 215,000 dollars in pre-orders”
Disclosure
Salguero: ButcherBox uses profits for annual employee share buybacks
“And so basically what we've done since 2018 is we've run a tender every year where we do a valuation of a four or nine evaluation. We get a price, a share price, and the company says, Hey, we'll repurchase people's shares. We also allow people to purchase shar…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Salguero: Niche influencer leads outperform referral customers in lifetime value
“So referral customers tend to perform really well. Like you'll see an additional, I think it's like an additional box in year one and they stay for longer. The only customer that's better than that is like a paleo keto kind of like influencer related customer”
Disclosure
Salguero: ButcherBox customer acquisition payback period is about five months
“What are your paybacks today? They're like five months.”