why aren't all 28 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lewis: Bedrock refuses to participate in competitive VC fundraising processes
“By the time a company's in a formal financing process, it's kind of dead to us. Like, we still love it, we still love the entrepreneurs, but once they've circulated a memo to 12 VC firms, we're not engaging.”
Disclosure
Lewis: Bedrock lost Rippling's Series B after trying to lower agreed valuation
“We agreed on evaluation with Parker. He's like, send me the term sheet. I'm ready to sign. And we were like, wait, Like all of their business at the time was SMBs. Now, since then they've extended, expanded surface area phenomenally into mid-market. They're st…”
Disclosure
Bedrock exited Bitcoin and Ethereum to fund its investment in Rippling
“And so we traded out of Bitcoin and Ethereum via our second fund and for it, right before the crash for a great multiple and recycled those proceeds to fund our rippling investment.”
Insight
Lewis: Pay up for transcendent startups at 300x ARR or invest zero
“The difference between a hundred X AR multiple and a 150 X AR multiple. The reality is those are both insane. And so you have to have extremely high conviction and to have done your diligence and really believe this set of entrepreneurs Entrepreneurs, this com…”
Disclosure
Geoff Lewis: Bedrock does not require minimum ownership targets in startups
“Lots of VCs will say, we need to own a certain percent of a company. We don't have that as a rule here.”
Disclosure
Geoff Lewis: Uncapped note in Rippling was one of Bedrock's best investments
“I think one of our best investments at Bedrock was doing an uncapped note investment in Rippling”
Insight
Lewis: Pay 300x ARR with extreme conviction, or invest zero
“And so you have to have extremely high conviction and to have done your diligence and really believe this set of entrepreneurs, this company is going to transcend. And if you feel that way, I would go for it at 300 versus 200. If you don't, I would do zero.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lewis: Bedrock's VC loss ratio is under 50 basis points
“We at Bedrock have only lost a few million dollars. You know, we've invested hundreds of millions of dollars over almost five years at this point. I think our loss ratio is less than 50 basis points, so we, we've lost almost no money.”
Disclosure
Geoff Lewis: Bedrock deployed 20% of first three funds into Rippling
“It's around 20% of those first three funds now. All in is rippling across all of our investments.”
Disclosure
Bedrock returned over 10x cash to Fund One LPs from crypto
“So we returned a 10 plus X life to date multiple on our Bitcoin and Ethereum investments on fund one. To our LPs in cash. Nobody even emailed us to thank us.”
Insight
Geoff Lewis: Bedrock's best-performing deals started with low initial ownership
“For me, the companies where I've done the best, and wherever I look, you know, retrospectively to our bedrock track record, our pre-bedrock track record, the ownership percentages were actually quite low, and so you basically, for me, it's operating the world,…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Geoff Lewis: Bedrock never uses follow-on rounds or markups as validation
“I don't care about what other firms are doing and where other firms are pricing things like, sure. It's nice to get markups, But ultimately, I never want to use follow on financing rounds. It's like validation that a company is working. It's always about the a…”
Disclosure
Geoff Lewis: Bedrock invested in Praxis to build a crypto city-state
“I think the most recent publicly announced one was Praxis, which is they're trying to build a new crypto city-state. I'd gotten to know those founders for several years before we invested in the seed round, and I'm just very excited by the vision around innova…”
Disclosure
Geoff Lewis: Bedrock heavily concentrated capital in Rippling, Vercel, and Flock Safety
“So we've concentrated capital in Rippling, Vercel, and Flock Safety to an extreme degree.”
Insight
Lewis: Bedrock underwrites for a 10x return without projecting beyond that
“First question always, is there a 10 X from here? Can we gain conviction through a bust analysis that if things go right, there is a 10 X from here? So that's our work. We don't try to project beyond that, but we do always ask the question, is there a 10 X fro…”
Disclosure
Geoff Lewis: Bedrock invested in Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2019
“We did Bitcoin and Ethereum shortly after launching our first fund in 2019.”
Disclosure
Lewis: Vercel is Bedrock's largest investment in dollars and valuation
“Well, of those three that you listed, Vercel is by far our largest investment in terms of dollars, and of those, just worth the other ones by a significant amount.”
Disclosure
Geoff Lewis: Bedrock's primary ethos is investing in narrative violations
“Our guiding ethos, our principle at bedrock from day zero was we want to search for narrative violations. We want to search for companies that for whatever reason are being overlooked or underestimated by other investors where we can get in at a counter narrat…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Geoff Lewis: Bedrock treats every follow-on check as a first-time investment
“So we, in practice, view every follow-on opportunity as we're investing for the first time.”
Disclosure
Geoff Lewis: Bedrock evaluates candidates for over 18 months before hiring
“Eric and I knew each other for, you know, eight or nine years before we started Bedrock together. We got to know Spencer for well over 18 months before we actually hired him onto the Bedrock team, and that story is true of basically Basically everyone we've hi…”
Insight
Geoff Lewis: Building an unfun corporate machine is a VC failure mode
“I'd say the one that we are most paranoid about avoiding is building a machine that's not actually fun to operate. And so I think there are like lots of firms that have built really impressive machines. And then if I was to transpose myself into being the mana…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Geoff Lewis: Bedrock Three will take over three years to deploy
“And with Bedrock Three, I think it's going to be like a three-year-plus type deployment cycle, and future funds will be the same.”
Disclosure
Geoff Lewis: Bedrock has significantly slowed its capital deployment pace
“And we've actually massively slowed our deployment pace over the past few quarters. We're deploying actually much slower now than we were at the height of our prior fund deployment cycles.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lewis: Vercel grew over 10x in the year following Bedrock's check
“Today, you know, they've grown over 10 X since we initially invested just over a year ago. It's seen as conventionally working and they've raised several rounds of follow on financing given it's working so much.”
Disclosure
Bedrock accumulated Rippling secondary shares leading up to catalyzing its Series D
“And after that screw up, we opportunistically bought secondary. Predominantly preferred secondary, because part of our thesis is this is going to be a relatively small preferred stack for the scale of the company that they're building at several junctures, and…”
Disclosure
Bedrock quadrupled down on Rippling by co-leading its Series D
“And the value proposition is uniquely suited, I think, to our times, which was part of why we decided to, you know, Quadruple into the company by co-leading that Series D round earlier this year.”
Assertion Contradicted
Bedrock manages over $1 billion in assets
“Now, with over a billion in AUM, Bedrock invests in breakout technology companies that are incongruent with popular narratives.”
Assertion Supported
Alex Mather raised over $139M for The Athletic
“To date, Alex has raised over one hundred and thirty nine million dollars with The Athletic from some of the best in the business, including Founders Fund, Bedrock, Y Combinator and Emerson Collective, to name a few.”