why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Weitzman: Renting an H100 GPU costs 1.5 times more than buying it
“If I was to buy an H 100 for, let's say, 30,000 dollars, that's how much the, kind of, a single card would cost. If I wanted to rent an H 100 for one hour spot instance from GCP, it could cost me five dollars. If I rented it from, like, You know, Azure or AWS,…”
Insight
Midha: Sovereign data needs open cloud market to startups after 15 years
“Because the context, the mission-critical context of those workloads is so important to be run locally that you can't run them on Amazon, AWS, GCP, or Azure, and it's the first time In 15 years that the sort of hyperscaler dominance is up for grabs for startup…”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Ross: Microsoft withheld Azure GPUs because internal usage made more money
“Microsoft in one quarter deployed a bunch of GPUs, and then announced that they weren't going to make them available in Azure because they made more money using them themselves than renting them out.”
Prediction Partly held up
Traynor: AI infrastructure will consolidate into 3-4 providers in direct price competition
“There'll probably be three or four big providers is my guest, probably GCP, AWS, maybe open AI directly. And I'm sure Azure, that's how I think that that layer will play out. And they'll end up in direct price competition with each other.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Des Traynor: AI infrastructure will consolidate into 3-4 price-competing providers
“They'll probably be three or four big providers is my guess. You'll be probably GCP, AWS, maybe OpenAI directly, and I'm sure Azure. That's how I think that layer will play out, and they'll end up in pretty direct price competition with each other.”
Assertion Supported
Rory O'Driscoll: Anthropic plans to build its own physical data centers
“Kind of, you didn't mention it, but in the same announcement, I think, Anthropic also said they're going to break ground on a physical data center. So that's another one of the model companies saying it's not enough to rely on compute from your service provide…”
Assertion Supported
Cahn: The $250B Cloud Infrastructure Market Equals the Entire SaaS Sector
“This cloud business today is a two hundred and fifty billion dollar business. So the cloud business today is the same size as the SaaS sector. That's the business that Azure, Google and AWS control is the same size as the entire SaaS sector.”
Assertion Partly supported
Tunguz: Top 3 cloud providers equal top 100 apps in market cap
“In web two, if you take the top three clouds and you look at their market cap, so AWS, GCP, and Azure, it's about a 2.1 trillion dollar market Just for the cloud businesses. And then if you take the top 100 publicly traded cloud companies, both on B to C and B…”
Assertion Supported
Rauch: Microsoft Azure has capitulated to become a Linux-first cloud
“Azure is a Linux-first cloud, as opposed to a Windows Server-first cloud, right?”
Assertion Supported
Tunguz: Web2 cloud infrastructure and application layers both have $2.1T market cap
“So in web two, if you take the top three clouds and you look at their market cap, so AWS, GCP, and Azure, it's about a 2.1 trillion dollar market cap just for the cloud businesses. And then if you take the top 100 publicly traded cloud companies, both on B to …”
Disclosure
Perplexity received $1M in cloud credits at launch
“When we started perplexity, we had like around 200,000 dollars worth of Amazon credits and GCP credits and Azure credits. That almost like together, cumulatively, this was worth like a million dollars in compute credits.”
Assertion Supported
Tomasz Tunguz: Web2 cloud infra and top 100 apps share equal market caps
“So in web two, if you take the top three clouds and you look at their market cap, so AWS, GCP, and Azure, It's about a 2.1 trillion dollar market cap just for the cloud businesses. And then if you take the top 100 publicly traded cloud companies, both on B to …”