why aren't all 24 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2032
Wood: Disruptive innovation market cap will hit $210T in ten years
“We believe today that truly disruptive technologically enabled innovation is priced in the global markets, public and private, at somewhere in the seven to eight trillion dollar range. So it's less than 10% of the global equity cap, public and private. We beli…”
Opinion
Wood: Institutional asset allocators hold a massive short on disruptive innovation
“We're giving asset allocators an opportunity to make up for the massive short that we believe they have in their portfolios. And that short is truly disruptive innovation.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wood: ARK outperformance signals market is nearing the end of a bear market
“Our strategies are starting to outperform now on days When some of these big benchmarks don't, and that's what usually happens as we're coming towards the end of a bear market.”
Disclosure
Wood: Personal portfolio is all-in on innovation, crypto, and private funds
“I think advisors looking at how I have positioned my own portfolio are shocked at how much I'm all in to innovation. Between our funds crypto and private funds.”
Opinion
Wood: ARK has the best innovation analyst team in the world
“I do believe we have the best analyst team when it comes to innovation in the world, and the reason we do is because their responsibilities are broken out not by sector or industry, but by technology.”
Assertion Supported
Wood: ARK lost under $1 billion in net outflows in 2022
“This year, we haven't even outflowed one billion, you know, out of that seventeen billion.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cathie Wood: Invitae will become a top molecular diagnostic testing company
“And we think they have streamlined and are going to become one of the most, if not the most important molecular diagnostic testing company.”
Opinion
Wood: Retail Investors Often Know More About Innovation Than Institutional LPs
“If we were to use knowledge as the metric for accreditation the accredited investors for ARC Would be those retail investors. They have, they are passionate about innovation, and they know so much about it, and many of them are working in the industry or in th…”
Assertion Supported
Wood: ARK cut flagship ARKK holdings from 58 to 32 names
“So we've moved our flagship portfolio ARKK from 58 names down to 32, 33 names and we're further consolidating in this risk-off period, but we tend to bottom out in that low thirties range.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wood: Withholding research will be seen as provincial within 3 to 5 years
“And I think it will be Considered a very provincial in let's say three to five years time to hear a firm saying, well, we don't share any of our research because it's our secret sauce.”
Disclosure
Wood: ARK completely sold Nvidia before buying back after stock tumbled
“We ended up selling out of Nvidia and only recently since it has had a tumble. Have we re-initiated our position?”
Insight
Wood: 80-90% stock drops increase expected five-year total returns
“What we see as our stocks go down 80 to 90%, if we're right we're seeing the total rate of return expectation increase for the next five years.”
Disclosure
Wood: ARK combines Wright's Law cost-modeling with a six-point innovation score
“We're sizing opportunities using Wright's law, a relative of Moore's law, to try and understand cost declines, and then we do our bottom-up analysis. We are as stock research driven as any other bottom-up team out there, and then we have a six-point overlay ju…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cathie Wood: ARK requires a minimum 15% hurdle rate for public portfolios
“Many of our stocks were beginning to fall below our minimum hurdle rate of return over a five year period. That number is 15% for the public portfolios.”
Disclosure
Cathie Wood: ARK averages down and concentrates portfolios in market drawdowns
“We average down during risk off periods, and we also concentrate our portfolios towards our highest conviction names.”
Disclosure
Wood: ARK portfolios have under 5% overlap with major equity benchmarks
“Less than 10% of our portfolio is, or I should say less than, there's much less than a 10% overlap between us and any, you know, it's usually less than five percent.”
Insight
Wood: Investment edge comes from synthesizing information, not owning data
“Information is ubiquitous. It's how you put it together.”
Disclosure
Cathie Wood: ARK sells companies showing management turmoil during fund concentration
“We're selling a lot of our portfolio to concentrate. And again, some of those sales are very good because we have a doubt. Wait a minute. There's a management turmoil or a lot of turnover and just, you know, little red flags that don't force us. They may be we…”
Disclosure
Wood: ARK uses same research analysts for public and private markets
“We are not using different analysts for private than public because they've been following these private companies the whole time.”
Disclosure
Cathie Wood: ARK holds private molecular diagnostics startup Freenome
“And I'll also say that in the private world, we think a contender is Freenome. And we have that as one of our first holdings.”
Disclosure
Wood: ARK Invest gives all research analysts company equity from day one
“We give all of our analysts equity and arc from the beginning.”
Disclosure
ARK Invest Partners With Titan for Venture Fund Distribution
“Titan is our partner, our distribution partner. It is an app, Andreessen Horowitz funded app, and we are the first outside equity fund that they are putting on this platform, and they are going to help us help our retail investors get to know our companies, Wi…”
Assertion Supported
Wood: ARK Invest generated $17 billion in net inflows in 2021
“So last year, our net flows, now they were front end loaded to be sure they were seventeen billion dollars. That's net. There were redemptions, but we kept seventeen billion of the flows last year.”
Disclosure
Cathie Wood: ARK Invest focuses on five converging innovation platforms
“So we've centered our research and investing around Five innovation platforms genomic sequencing robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technology and those are all converging.”