The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic reports gross AWS revenue; OpenAI reports net Microsoft revenue
“There was this kind of whole meme of OpenAI reports net on their partner revenue and Entropic reports gross. And what they're saying there is if OpenAI sells through Microsoft and Microsoft takes some money off the top, OpenAI only reports the net amount. If A…”
Rory O’Driscoll Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 30:31 OpenAI Kills Sora & Hits $100M ARR on Ads | Oura Going Public & Whoop Raises at $10BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Cerebras recently signed deals with OpenAI and AWS
“And in the last three months, they've signed a deal with OpenAI and a deal with Atropic. Sorry, no, a deal with OpenAI and a deal with AWS. Sorry, I should be precise, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 1:34:55 Cursor Acquired for $60BN | Anthropic Hits $1TRN in Secondary Markets & Figma, Adobe, Canva Dead? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Rory O'Driscoll: Anthropic plans to build its own physical data centers
“Kind of, you didn't mention it, but in the same announcement, I think, Anthropic also said they're going to break ground on a physical data center. So that's another one of the model companies saying it's not enough to rely on compute from your service provide…”
Rory O'Driscoll Nov 27, 2025 ▶ 3:13 Anthropic Raises $30B from Microsoft & NVIDIA & NVIDIA’s Core Business Faces TPU Threat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Cahn: The $250B Cloud Infrastructure Market Equals the Entire SaaS Sector
“This cloud business today is a two hundred and fifty billion dollar business. So the cloud business today is the same size as the SaaS sector. That's the business that Azure, Google and AWS control is the same size as the entire SaaS sector.”
David Cahn Aug 5, 2024 ▶ 11:47 David Cahn: Why Servers, Steel and Power Are the Pillars Powering the Future of AI | E1186 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
AWS waited until $100B in revenue to fully verticalize its sales org
“AWS just moved to verticals right across the whole organization and they're a hundred billion.”
Ron Gabrisko Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 27:35 20Sales: $0-$3.7BN: The Databricks CRO's Playbook to Build the Fastest GTM Engine in SaaS History | How Databricks Beat Snowflake | How To Build a Sales Org of 5,000 and Close $190M Deals with Ron Gabrisko
Assertion Supported
Casado: Early AWS Had Far More Market Dominance Than Anthropic Does Today
“AWS was like, 70 or 80% market share early on. Nobody thought they could ever catch up to them. You know, they were the massive market leaders that created the category. I mean, they had way more dominance than Anthropic has now.”
Martin Casado Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 7:07 a16z GP, Martin Casado: Anthropic vs OpenAI & Why Open Source is a National Security Risk with China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Khan: The top three cloud providers were created by public companies
“AWS was created by a public market company, the entire cloud business. You know, the three biggest cloud providers were public company when they started it.”
Imran Khan Aug 26, 2024 ▶ 11:02 Imran Khan: Why the IPO Market is Not Closed & Lessons From Taking Snap & Alibaba Public | E1194 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Tunguz: Web2 cloud infrastructure and application layers both have $2.1T market cap
“So in web two, if you take the top three clouds and you look at their market cap, so AWS, GCP, and Azure, it's about a 2.1 trillion dollar market cap just for the cloud businesses. And then if you take the top 100 publicly traded cloud companies, both on B to …”
Tomasz Tunguz Apr 21, 2023 ▶ 30:58 Tomasz Tunguz: How I Raised $230M; ChatGPT vs. Google; How LLMs Work; Trump vs DeSantis | E1004 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Dubugras: Startups with $5M in funding couldn't get corporate cards in 2017
“Startups had to raise a lot of money and couldn't get a corporate credit card. And that was the first problem that we saw was like, how come you have raised five million dollars and you can't get a card to pay for your SAS and AWS bills?”
Henrique Dubugras Apr 15, 2022 ▶ 3:51 20VC: Brex's Henrique Dubugras on Advice from Evan Spiegel and Eric Schmidt on CEOship, The Biggest Hiring Mistakes When Scaling, What Everyone Gets Wrong with Product Messaging and When is the Right Time to Launch Secondary Products
Assertion Supported
Tomasz Tunguz: Web2 cloud infra and top 100 apps share equal market caps
“So in web two, if you take the top three clouds and you look at their market cap, so AWS, GCP, and Azure, It's about a 2.1 trillion dollar market cap just for the cloud businesses. And then if you take the top 100 publicly traded cloud companies, both on B to …”
Tomasz Tunguz May 24, 2024 ▶ 9:33 Sam Altman, Arthur Mensch and more discuss:Which Startups Are Threatened vs Enabled by OpenAI?|E1156 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Gordon: Amazon AWS, Kindle, and Prime were shaped in key board meetings
“I remember the board meeting on Amazon where we first talked About what become Amazon Web Services, AWS. I remember the first time, I remember a series of meetings that led to the presentation of Kindle. I remember a series of meetings that led to the presenta…”
Bing Gordon Nov 27, 2017 ▶ 11:58 20VC: Kleiner Perkins' Bing Gordon on Lessons From Serving On Amazon & Zynga's Board, Why The Best Investors Are Good Listeners and Sceptical Optimists & The Most Important Value Add A VC Can Provide
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