why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Weitzman: Renting an H100 GPU costs 1.5 times more than buying it
“If I was to buy an H 100 for, let's say, 30,000 dollars, that's how much the, kind of, a single card would cost. If I wanted to rent an H 100 for one hour spot instance from GCP, it could cost me five dollars. If I rented it from, like, You know, Azure or AWS,…”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic reports gross AWS revenue; OpenAI reports net Microsoft revenue
“There was this kind of whole meme of OpenAI reports net on their partner revenue and Entropic reports gross. And what they're saying there is if OpenAI sells through Microsoft and Microsoft takes some money off the top, OpenAI only reports the net amount. If A…”
Rory O’Driscoll Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 30:31 OpenAI Kills Sora & Hits $100M ARR on Ads | Oura Going Public & Whoop Raises at $10BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
Fitzpatrick: AWS report shows 70% of AI agents are traditional automation scripts
“There was actually a report AWS came out with today, it's interesting, that like, 70% of agents are actually not even, ah, AI agents, as you think of it. Like, most of the agent, agentic processes today are actually traditional script writing and just traditio…”
Prediction Partly held up
Traynor: AI infrastructure will consolidate into 3-4 providers in direct price competition
“There'll probably be three or four big providers is my guest, probably GCP, AWS, maybe open AI directly. And I'm sure Azure, that's how I think that that layer will play out. And they'll end up in direct price competition with each other.”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Cerebras recently signed deals with OpenAI and AWS
“And in the last three months, they've signed a deal with OpenAI and a deal with Atropic. Sorry, no, a deal with OpenAI and a deal with AWS. Sorry, I should be precise, right?”
Assertion Supported
Rory O'Driscoll: Anthropic plans to build its own physical data centers
“Kind of, you didn't mention it, but in the same announcement, I think, Anthropic also said they're going to break ground on a physical data center. So that's another one of the model companies saying it's not enough to rely on compute from your service provide…”
Assertion Supported
Cahn: The $250B Cloud Infrastructure Market Equals the Entire SaaS Sector
“This cloud business today is a two hundred and fifty billion dollar business. So the cloud business today is the same size as the SaaS sector. That's the business that Azure, Google and AWS control is the same size as the entire SaaS sector.”
Assertion Partly supported
Tunguz: Top 3 cloud providers equal top 100 apps in market cap
“In web two, if you take the top three clouds and you look at their market cap, so AWS, GCP, and Azure, it's about a 2.1 trillion dollar market Just for the cloud businesses. And then if you take the top 100 publicly traded cloud companies, both on B to C and B…”
Assertion Supported
AWS waited until $100B in revenue to fully verticalize its sales org
“AWS just moved to verticals right across the whole organization and they're a hundred billion.”
Assertion Supported
Casado: Early AWS Had Far More Market Dominance Than Anthropic Does Today
“AWS was like, 70 or 80% market share early on. Nobody thought they could ever catch up to them. You know, they were the massive market leaders that created the category. I mean, they had way more dominance than Anthropic has now.”
Assertion Supported
Khan: The top three cloud providers were created by public companies
“AWS was created by a public market company, the entire cloud business. You know, the three biggest cloud providers were public company when they started it.”
Assertion Supported
Tunguz: Web2 cloud infrastructure and application layers both have $2.1T market cap
“So in web two, if you take the top three clouds and you look at their market cap, so AWS, GCP, and Azure, it's about a 2.1 trillion dollar market cap just for the cloud businesses. And then if you take the top 100 publicly traded cloud companies, both on B to …”
Assertion Supported
Dubugras: Startups with $5M in funding couldn't get corporate cards in 2017
“Startups had to raise a lot of money and couldn't get a corporate credit card. And that was the first problem that we saw was like, how come you have raised five million dollars and you can't get a card to pay for your SAS and AWS bills?”
Assertion Supported
Tomasz Tunguz: Web2 cloud infra and top 100 apps share equal market caps
“So in web two, if you take the top three clouds and you look at their market cap, so AWS, GCP, and Azure, It's about a 2.1 trillion dollar market cap just for the cloud businesses. And then if you take the top 100 publicly traded cloud companies, both on B to …”
Assertion Supported
Gordon: Amazon AWS, Kindle, and Prime were shaped in key board meetings
“I remember the board meeting on Amazon where we first talked About what become Amazon Web Services, AWS. I remember the first time, I remember a series of meetings that led to the presentation of Kindle. I remember a series of meetings that led to the presenta…”
Assertion Partly supported
Linda Lian: AWS launched its developer community programs around 2017
“This was around 2017 when we really started building all of the developer community engagement programs that AWS still has today, including our developer Slack, our Reddit engagement, our Stack Overflow engagement, open sourcing product roadmaps on GitHub.”