The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Andreessen: a16z will 100% not pass on defense tech deals again
“And so you'll notice that like we are now extremely enthusiastic investors in defense tech and in you know, things involving law enforcement, national security, public safety and, you know, say a hundred percent, we would not make that same mistake again.”
Marc Andreessen Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 1:12:54 Marc Andreessen: Will a16z Go Public & Why Labour Displacement with AI is Wrong? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Open · timeframe Oct 2028
Stebbings: Andreessen Horowitz will generate $40B+ back from Databricks
“They're about to get the payday of paydays in Ventureland with a minimum of forty billion back from Databricks.”
Harry Stebbings Oct 9, 2025 ▶ 37:05 OpenAI's Multi-Billion Deal with AMD & Polymarket, Vercel and Supabase Raise Mega Rounds · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2031
O'Driscoll: a16z DOJ board investigation will resolve by exiting Fivetran board
“But my guess is it peters out into some version of the venture firm just saying, we'll take off the board member on Fivetrans, whatever, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 20, 2026 ▶ 1:13:27 Stripe's $8B OpenRouter Bet | Anthropic's First Profit & The Math Behind Reaching $600B in Revenue?
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