Jonathan Hsu, General Partner at Tribe Capital, describes why valuation precision is secondary to power-law distribution outcomes in early-stage venture capital.
0:00 / 0:14exact quote · 14.4s
720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“The probability distributions that we're dealing with at the very earliest stage are such that if you're plus or -20, 30, even 40, 50%, it's not going to make or break the result. Either you're going to lose all your money, or you're going to make multiple times your money. There's not a lot in between.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading:
filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard
(the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
More from Jonathan Hsu
PredictionNot checkable as stated
Hsu: Tribe Capital will sacrifice ownership percentage to recruit top growth co-investors
“We don't necessarily think that we're the best growth investors out there. So part of our job is to help our portfolios get the best possible growth investors in their later rounds. So even if that means that we have to give up some ownership for it, because, …”
Jonathan HsuJun 17, 2019▶ 20:4120VC: Why Historical Loss Ratios Are Simply Too High, Why Data Is The #1 Most Important Piece When Evaluating Effective Reserve Allocation & Why Nothing Is Truly Defensible Today with Jonathan Hsu, Co-Founder and General Partner @ Tribe Capital
Insight
Hsu: Data science is no silver bullet for venture sourcing
“By and large, that there's no one silver bullet in sourcing, right? Sourcing is one of these things where good old ground game, just raw networking and being out there is a really important piece of it. Building brand is an important piece of it and having an …”
Jonathan HsuJun 17, 2019▶ 6:2420VC: Why Historical Loss Ratios Are Simply Too High, Why Data Is The #1 Most Important Piece When Evaluating Effective Reserve Allocation & Why Nothing Is Truly Defensible Today with Jonathan Hsu, Co-Founder and General Partner @ Tribe Capital
Insight
Jonathan Hsu: Data is unbiased; humans introduce bias through inference
“Data is actually totally unbiased. When you infer something from data, then you do something biased, right? That's where you introduce bias.”
Jonathan HsuJun 17, 2019▶ 11:1520VC: Why Historical Loss Ratios Are Simply Too High, Why Data Is The #1 Most Important Piece When Evaluating Effective Reserve Allocation & Why Nothing Is Truly Defensible Today with Jonathan Hsu, Co-Founder and General Partner @ Tribe Capital
AssertionSupported
Hsu: Slack and Carta didn't build dedicated data teams until Series C
“I just want to think back to Slack and Carter, two companies that we've worked with, you know, in the last couple of years, you know, both of them didn't really start investing in this Full bore, you know, well into about the series C, if I remember correctly.…”
Jonathan HsuJun 17, 2019▶ 16:3420VC: Why Historical Loss Ratios Are Simply Too High, Why Data Is The #1 Most Important Piece When Evaluating Effective Reserve Allocation & Why Nothing Is Truly Defensible Today with Jonathan Hsu, Co-Founder and General Partner @ Tribe Capital
Opinion
Hsu: Historical Loss Ratios in Venture Capital Are Too High
“We believe that historical loss ratios are too high in venture to some extent.”
Jonathan HsuJun 17, 2019▶ 18:3320VC: Why Historical Loss Ratios Are Simply Too High, Why Data Is The #1 Most Important Piece When Evaluating Effective Reserve Allocation & Why Nothing Is Truly Defensible Today with Jonathan Hsu, Co-Founder and General Partner @ Tribe Capital
Insight
Hsu: Data becomes the primary evaluation factor as startups mature beyond Series A
“When you're in the earliest stage, Data is one of many things. You know, the interesting thing about a Series A is that there is no one most important thing. There are many, many important things. And then the further and further you get along, the more and mo…”
Jonathan HsuJun 17, 2019▶ 20:2320VC: Why Historical Loss Ratios Are Simply Too High, Why Data Is The #1 Most Important Piece When Evaluating Effective Reserve Allocation & Why Nothing Is Truly Defensible Today with Jonathan Hsu, Co-Founder and General Partner @ Tribe Capital
Made with StarZero
Turn any episode into a week of clips.
This entire site, over 1,200 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable,
runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the
moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.
We use essential cookies to make the site work. With your permission we
also use analytics cookies (Google Analytics and Mixpanel) to understand
usage and improve StarZero. See our Cookie Policy.