Insight certainty 4/5 debate potential 2/5

Hankes: Investors Over-Attribute Startup Success to Execution During Market Booms

Vince Hankes · Vince Hankes: Why We Put $300M into OpenAI; Sam Altman's Pitch; Lessons from Josh Kushner | E1009 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings · May 3, 2023 · at 52:17

Vince Hankes, Partner at Thrive Capital, reflects on changing macro environments and how investors misattribute market-driven momentum to company execution.

0:00 / 0:55exact quote · 55.4s
▶ Watch the full episode on YouTube → 720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“This is probably more, this is not for the rapid fire, but you know, one thing that's become clear as we've kind of come out of or gone into this more difficult environment to operate in is in the good times, we probably over attribute to teams and products, how good they are. And in the bad times, you can't just blame everything on macro, but I think it makes you reflect on the over attribution you probably did in the good times. And so You know, one thing I've changed my mind on is you got to be more balanced about how much credit you give to the momentum of a company from the market environment versus the actual execution they're doing and know that there's the balance there and, you know, good execution doesn't always mean that it leads to great momentum. Sometimes great momentum is also influenced by these market environments or variables that are harder to quantify.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Vince Hankes

Disclosure
Hankes: Many Venture Capital Firms Passed on Investing in OpenAI
“Well, you know, I think there's a lot of people that said no. So at the end of the day, I, you know, there, as much as I like to think we want a really competitive deal, I do think It was not obvious to everybody, and even now I don't think it's still obvious …”
Vince Hankes May 3, 2023 ▶ 16:04 Vince Hankes: Why We Put $300M into OpenAI; Sam Altman's Pitch; Lessons from Josh Kushner | E1009 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Hankes: Disrupting Google Search Is a Trillion-Dollar Opportunity
“We're not talking about building the next unicorn or decacorn. We're talking about disrupting search or Google. I mean, that's a trillion dollar opportunity.”
Vince Hankes May 3, 2023 ▶ 17:02 Vince Hankes: Why We Put $300M into OpenAI; Sam Altman's Pitch; Lessons from Josh Kushner | E1009 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hankes: AI Moats Will Be Ecosystems, Not Model Outputs, Within Five Years
“I do think, again, the dimension by which people are going to think about this in five years from now, looking back, isn't going to be about The commoditization of the model and the raw output, it's going to be, oh, the ecosystem around the model has become mu…”
Vince Hankes May 3, 2023 ▶ 23:29 Vince Hankes: Why We Put $300M into OpenAI; Sam Altman's Pitch; Lessons from Josh Kushner | E1009 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Hankes: AI Startups Will Struggle to Compete With Fast-Shipping Incumbents
“And so if you're a startup, I get that you have the advantage of speed, but you need a multi-year execution window to be able to take advantage of all that product you can ship quickly. If these big companies are able to ship this quickly, they've got so much …”
Vince Hankes May 3, 2023 ▶ 26:29 Vince Hankes: Why We Put $300M into OpenAI; Sam Altman's Pitch; Lessons from Josh Kushner | E1009 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Hankes: Bet on Startups Creating Novel User Experiences Over Incumbents
“Yes, if you're going toe to toe right now with an incumbent on their home turf and their shipping, I think it's a hard bet to take the opposite side of, you know, in our business. But if you're creating something that's totally a different user experience that…”
Vince Hankes May 3, 2023 ▶ 28:45 Vince Hankes: Why We Put $300M into OpenAI; Sam Altman's Pitch; Lessons from Josh Kushner | E1009 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hankes: Most AI Value Will Accrue to Applications, Not Infrastructure
“I have to believe it's gonna accrue mostly to the application layer. I think if you think about infrastructure companies as platforms, you know, if you think about the software market as the relatives, the value of AWS and Microsoft and Google cloud versus the…”
Vince Hankes May 3, 2023 ▶ 29:48 Vince Hankes: Why We Put $300M into OpenAI; Sam Altman's Pitch; Lessons from Josh Kushner | E1009 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 1,200 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.