Mo Koyfman, founder and General Partner at Shine Capital, discusses why attributing successful venture outcomes to specific choices creates dangerous confirmation bias.
“I've actually found that learning lessons from successes is extremely dangerous because of the risk of confirmation bias. We will convince ourselves Of whatever we want to convince ourselves is the proximal cause of the success, you know, because it was successful. So I honestly believe that you can only really learn from your failures.”
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More from Mo Koyfman
Opinion
VCs Who Claim to Always Exercise Pro-Rata Rights Are Lying
“Anybody that says they do pro rata always, I think, is lying. I just, I don't believe that to be the case, and I've seen enough, I've been in venture long enough to know that that's total bullshit.”
Mo KoyfmanAug 8, 2022▶ 28:08Mo Koyfman: The Secret to Winning in Venture; Why Small Funds Outperform Large Funds | 20VC #915 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Larger Early-Stage Venture Funds Consistently Yield Lower Returns Over Time
“Larger early stage funds always lead to lesser returns over time.”
Mo KoyfmanAug 8, 2022▶ 18:11Mo Koyfman: The Secret to Winning in Venture; Why Small Funds Outperform Large Funds | 20VC #915 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Investors Prefer Re-Backing Founders Who Shut Down Failing Startups Gracefully
“The investors are That are in your cap table today are infinitely more likely to back you again, watching you make that kind of mature decision as an entrepreneur, rather than watching you piss that money down the drain over the next two years, and actually, i…”
Mo KoyfmanAug 8, 2022▶ 32:17Mo Koyfman: The Secret to Winning in Venture; Why Small Funds Outperform Large Funds | 20VC #915 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
PredictionNot checkable as stated
The VC Industry Faces a Reckoning With Many Firms Shutting Down
“I think there will be a lot of folks that go away in this cycle. I watched it in the last go round. You know, Spark and USV and all these firms didn't exist before the last cycle. And they really made their names coming out of the O eight crisis. And on the ot…”
Mo KoyfmanAug 8, 2022▶ 58:52Mo Koyfman: The Secret to Winning in Venture; Why Small Funds Outperform Large Funds | 20VC #915 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
AssertionSupported
Bijan Sabet's Twitter Series B Catapulted Spark Capital Into Top Tier
“As I was joining Spark, Bijan Sabat at Spark led Twitter series B and that investment catapulted us into the upper echelon of VC firms.”
Mo KoyfmanAug 8, 2022▶ 6:25Mo Koyfman: The Secret to Winning in Venture; Why Small Funds Outperform Large Funds | 20VC #915 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Durable VC Firms Require Clear Leadership Rather Than Equal Partnerships
“And while both can certainly work and there are certain, and there are notable exceptions here, like union square ventures, for instance, which works very well as a partnership structure, the more durable firms in my experience often have very clear leadership…”
Mo KoyfmanAug 8, 2022▶ 9:51Mo Koyfman: The Secret to Winning in Venture; Why Small Funds Outperform Large Funds | 20VC #915 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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