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Kyle Samani

Co-Founder & Managing Partner, Multicoin Capital · 2 appearances on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

investorfounderexecutiveanalyst@KyleSamani ↗LinkedIn ↗multicoin.capital ↗

In 2017, Samani co-founded Multicoin Capital, an investment firm managing hedge and venture funds focused on blockchain networks, tokens, and Web3 infrastructure. He is known for publishing thesis-driven research and making early bets on projects like Solana, having previously founded enterprise smartglasses software company Pristine.

48statements → 16claims → 5claims resolved → 40%fully supported → 4.1/5average certainty → 2.96/5average debate potential → 4.3/5argument clarity · the sources → 6said about them ↓

2 supported 3 partly supported 0 contradicted 3 not yet assessed 8 not checkable as stated how the 16 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

8 predictions · 8 assertions · 9 opinions · 12 insights · 11 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 16 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 5 are resolved, 3 are not yet assessed, and 8 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Kyle argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Samani: Only four insiders knew about the database manipulations at FTX
“There, we know now there were four people who knew. Sam, Caroline, Nishad, and Gary. No one else knew. When you keep the circle small, like, you can keep information hidden, and explicitly, in this case, the information was, go make arbitrary changes in the da…”
Kyle Samani Jan 8, 2024 ▶ 34:03 Crypto Roundtable with Nick Tomaino & Kyle Samani: US Elections, NFTs, and Trump | E1100 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
100% certainty 3
50% certainty 4
75% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

Argument clarity: do they answer the question? how? →

4.3 / 5 directness 4.5 · coherence 4.7 · precision 4.2 · compression 3.9

answered every one of 21 assessed questions directly

This is a score against a rubric. It is not a rank. Every host question → answer exchange is scored with names hidden on directness, coherence, precision and compression, 1–5 each, on meaning alone: disfluencies are ignored, and only raw unedited episodes count. This is the score that measures thought. Every scored exchange, scores shown → · The rubric and its checks →

How they sound: speaking style how? →

275 words/min while actually speaking · 35.6 um and uh per 1k words · 17.8 false starts per 1k · 26.1% of pauses land inside a clause

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 10,964 words across 2 episodes of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

How the interview went all their pushback → series average →

Across 2 rated episodes:

host pushback ▾ 3.5/10
pushed back at the host ▾ 4.5/10
setup questions received 40%

Everything Kyle Samani said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Opinion
Samani: DePIN productively channels crypto speculation into real-world economic output
“The speculation can be channeled productively, and I think that's underappreciated. D-PIN is really the kind of torchbearer, I think, on that front, where you can use the collective hive mind of people doing stuff in the real world and funding that collectivel…”
Kyle Samani Jan 8, 2024 ▶ 2:11 Crypto Roundtable with Nick Tomaino & Kyle Samani: US Elections, NFTs, and Trump | E1100 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Samani: DeFi rails will eventually replace traditional regulated payment infrastructure
“DeFi payment rails are Objectively better than traditional rails. And you will see economic activity move off of traditional regulated rails to defy rails over time. That will take a while but it will happen.”
Kyle Samani Jan 8, 2024 ▶ 2:32 Crypto Roundtable with Nick Tomaino & Kyle Samani: US Elections, NFTs, and Trump | E1100 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Samani: Crypto proved global demand for speculation far exceeds VC expectations
“And I would actually argue probably on an absolute dollars basis, crypto has shown that the demand for speculation globally is much larger than people previously thought. And the manifestations and forms in which people want it are broader and more varied than…”
Kyle Samani Jan 8, 2024 ▶ 6:37 Crypto Roundtable with Nick Tomaino & Kyle Samani: US Elections, NFTs, and Trump | E1100 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Samani: Solana is explicitly capitalist compared to Ethereum's public-goods culture
“Ethereum is very focused on public goods funding, Very focused on kind of general welfare. And Solana is like very directly capitalist in kind of the more traditional sense of the word.”
Kyle Samani Jan 8, 2024 ▶ 13:41 Crypto Roundtable with Nick Tomaino & Kyle Samani: US Elections, NFTs, and Trump | E1100 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Samani: Multicoin passed on FTX seed round before buying FTT in 2019
“The original reason we passed on the FTT seed round in March, April, 2019 was because we were like, Hey man, no separation of church and state. You can't run Alameda and FTX. People are not going to trade here. And we were like, okay, pass. And then we passed.…”
Kyle Samani Jan 8, 2024 ▶ 33:28 Crypto Roundtable with Nick Tomaino & Kyle Samani: US Elections, NFTs, and Trump | E1100 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Samani: Multicoin's early bet on EOS was completely wrong
“Our first bet we made was EOS. That was absolutely wrong. There were a lot of valid technical criticisms that we ignored and all of those technical criticisms turned out to be correct.”
Kyle Samani Jan 8, 2024 ▶ 52:21 Crypto Roundtable with Nick Tomaino & Kyle Samani: US Elections, NFTs, and Trump | E1100 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2034
Samani: Every smartphone will have a built-in private key within ten years
“I want everyone in the world to have a private key built into their phone that is secure and that they can use for arbitrary financial movements, whether those are payments or investments and that they can do so across any application. And I have a high degree…”
Kyle Samani Jan 8, 2024 ▶ 54:05 Crypto Roundtable with Nick Tomaino & Kyle Samani: US Elections, NFTs, and Trump | E1100 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Samani: Stripe was overhyped for merely processing credit card payments
“I had played around with Stripes APIs maybe a week or two prior. And I was quite frankly, not terribly impressed. I was like, you can take a credit card payment. Like, why is this the most hyped up company in the world?”
Kyle Samani Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 1:29 Kyle Samani: Why Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Inflation | 20VC #909 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Samani: Multicoin holds investments indefinitely and ignores asset prices
“We scrapped the trading, the market, and I no longer look at the prices of anything. We now are 100% focused on thesis formation with our holding period is indefinite.”
Kyle Samani Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 3:46 Kyle Samani: Why Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Inflation | 20VC #909 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Samani: Top crypto assets like Bitcoin and Solana lack obvious DCF models
“The largest assets by market cap, notably Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, et cetera are assets that don't really have an obvious DCF.”
Kyle Samani Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 6:28 Kyle Samani: Why Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Inflation | 20VC #909 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Samani: Token incentives bootstrap physical networks by aligning risk and upside
“This is, I think like the textbook example of using token incentives to bootstrapping network. Where you actually are both able to assign risk and reward and couple those things in, in a real meaningful way. And in which the participants of the network, in thi…”
Kyle Samani Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 13:09 Kyle Samani: Why Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Inflation | 20VC #909 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Samani: Finding truth in investment decisions requires active, intense disagreement
“The process of actually recognizing the truth fundamentally requires active disagreements. Because the human brain is subject to everyone has their own biases and whatever heuristics they're using. And they're, as they write a memo are, some of which are inher…”
Kyle Samani Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 23:29 Kyle Samani: Why Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Inflation | 20VC #909 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Multicoin Capital hires blindly based on writing quality rather than resumes
“Step one of our hiring process is write an essay better than what's on our blog. I actually, I don't read your name. I don't read your background. I don't read your resume. I don't care. I just start reading the first words of your document.”
Kyle Samani Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 25:09 Kyle Samani: Why Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Inflation | 20VC #909 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Samani: Early-stage investors lack rigor evaluating returns to scale
“I think most folks at the earliest stages of investments are not nearly rigorous enough in discussing where the returns to scale come from.”
Kyle Samani Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 31:54 Kyle Samani: Why Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Inflation | 20VC #909 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Samani: Almost all product network effects are sublinear
“Almost all network effects are sublinear.”
Kyle Samani Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 34:11 Kyle Samani: Why Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Inflation | 20VC #909 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Samani: Developers, not retail consumers, are blockchain's true customers
“The customer of a blockchain is, is not retail. The customer of a blockchain is developers.”
Kyle Samani Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 49:43 Kyle Samani: Why Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Inflation | 20VC #909 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Samani: Changpeng Zhao will serve less than 18 months in prison
“I believe consensus is he will be less than 18 months.”
Kyle Samani Jan 8, 2024 ▶ 38:30 Crypto Roundtable with Nick Tomaino & Kyle Samani: US Elections, NFTs, and Trump | E1100 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Samani: A Republican president would appoint an SEC Chair like Jay Clayton
“If a Republican is elected, it's safe to assume that the new chair of the SEC that the president will appoint is much more likely to be closer to Chair Clayton in ethos than Chair Gensler.”
Kyle Samani Jan 8, 2024 ▶ 42:40 Crypto Roundtable with Nick Tomaino & Kyle Samani: US Elections, NFTs, and Trump | E1100 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Samani: Crypto funds cannot combine trading, fundamental research, and venture
“We cannot be the best at everything. We tried to for our first. 36 months, 24 to 36 months trade the market and do fundamental research and do venture. And we realized you cannot, you just cannot do all of the above.”
Kyle Samani Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 3:24 Kyle Samani: Why Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Inflation | 20VC #909 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Samani: Retail investors have a far higher appetite for venture-like returns
“One thing I've discovered is there's a lot more demand for venture scale return, or I should say venture skew of returns among retail than you would previously think.”
Kyle Samani Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 14:51 Kyle Samani: Why Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Inflation | 20VC #909 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Multicoin Capital IC begins with seven minutes of silent Google Doc commenting
“Once, you know, we are talking about a new asset in investment committee, the subsequent six or seven minutes are silent. It's everyone having a bunch of Google doc comment conversations concurrently.”
Kyle Samani Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 21:47 Kyle Samani: Why Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Inflation | 20VC #909 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Multicoin writes check sizes from $1M to $300M across all stages
“We are stage agnostic. We will write one million dollar tickets. We will write three hundred million dollar tickets and we will do everything in between.”
Kyle Samani Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 29:17 Kyle Samani: Why Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Inflation | 20VC #909 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Samani: Multicoin has spent over a year TWAPing out of one position
“But we can happily T WAP over, over six months. We have one position we've been T WAPing for a year.”
Kyle Samani Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 46:58 Kyle Samani: Why Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Inflation | 20VC #909 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Samani: Reads three to four hours daily but stopped reading books
“I don't read books anymore. But my daily reading time, although it is not on my calendar is probably on the order of three to four hours.”
Kyle Samani Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 37:36 Kyle Samani: Why Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Inflation | 20VC #909 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

The other half of the tape: Kyle Samani's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 6 times in 3 episodes on 20VC. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Harry Stebbings 4Joel Monegro 1Ian Lee 1

Every mention by year

Appearances (2)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Crypto Roundtable with Nick Tomaino & Kyle Samani: US Elections, NFTs, and Trump | E1100 · Jan 8, 2024 17m
Kyle Samani: Why Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Inflation | 20VC #909 · 20VC with Harry St Jul 22, 2022 34m
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