Every argument clarity score on this site is built from rows on this page. Each
question and answer was assessed with names hidden, the host's own answers included, on
four things from 1 to 5:
directness (does it answer the question asked), coherence (do the ideas follow),
precision (concrete details and clear references), compression (says a lot per word). The weighted
mix (30/30/25/15) is the exchange score. A person's published score averages their exchange
scores on raw tape only, at least 8 of them, shrunk toward the cohort mean.
Full method →
Answered raw tape
D 3 · C 4 · P 4 · Cm 3 3.55
Q What do people, what do people not see with RL that they should see? Because I, candidly, I don't.
A Yeah, so, so, look, again, RL is, we've had a few years of, I would call, imitation learning before RL, which is, that's what went into GPT-III and III.V and so on, which is basically, you take the entire internet, and you read the whole internet, and you get a model that sounds like somebody on Reddit. It's crazy. I mean, it was obviously ChatGPT, like, shocked the world, and it was a huge moment for everybody. Um, but, um, but, but, but yeah, you could kind of see why, well, you know, talking like the average is, is not necessarily the thing that you need to Do to go build a great, you know, medicine specialist or a great, um, um, you know, software engineer or any of these things. And I, I actually got a lot of the way there to be fair, more than people might've guessed. Um, but, but I think that the next big thing with RL is, as we said, you can take any benchmark and solve it. It is crazy to say, but, but, but, but I think the next step of that is honestly an open question for everyone in every application, which is, Hey, what is the benchmark? You know? Well, if you're, you're, you're an accountant, you know, the benchmark, I mean, in real world terms, the benchmark is roughly like, all right, you submit returns on behalf of the client. And, you know, if you get audited by the IRS and something comes up, then, then that was a fail for the RL. And if you don't, then you di…
AI assessment note: “the next step of that is honestly an open question... what is the benchmark?”
Answered raw tape
D 3 · C 4 · P 4 · Cm 3 3.55
Q I love it. Uh, okay, dude. Was one widely held belief about AI that you think is completely wrong?
A Yeah, I'll give you a take. You know, it's, Sam Altman had this post 10 years ago called Bubble Theory. Do you remember it? He was basically saying, this was in his YC days, and he said, you know, everyone here says that all these companies are overvalued and we're in a bubble, and it's obviously fun to talk about bubbles and all, but I don't believe that, and I'm going to give you a bet. And he said, here are the, it looks hilarious, by the way, when you read it in retrospect, which is like, here are the top, you know, YC companies today, and it's literally like Uber and Airbnb and like, you know, And it's like, today, these are worth this much. I predict that five years from now, they're going to be worth, you know, three X more, you know? And then it's like, here are these kind of like emerging, you know, mid, mid-level companies. And then that list was like, you know, Stripe and, um, and some of these others. And it's like, today, these are worth this much. I predict these will be up at least three X, you know? And he basically said, everyone says we're in a bubble. If you'd like to go and bet on that and put your own money down, I am happy to put, you know, money on this. And I have to say, in AI, I really feel this. I, I feel this, I think, now more strongly than ever, which is over the last two years, people kind of think of it as this, this Gen AI wave. Again, like we'r…
AI assessment note: “And I have to say, in AI, I really feel this.”
Redirected raw tape
D 3 · C 4 · P 3 · Cm 3 3.30
Q You not want, though, the developer products For these foundation models to commoditize, because then you gain leverage. If Anthropix and Claude continues to be so much better than it is, their leverage is gone. Do you not want that commoditization?
A Yeah. Yeah. Look, I, I mean, I think it's, uh, it's, to be honest, I mean, I think whether we want it or not, it seems like folks are, folks are pushing ahead in the foundation model space and making a ton of progress. We've seen a lot of launches even in the last, you know, week or two, right? I mean, there's Kini and Grok and, um, and a ton of great progress that's been happening. And, and I think that is the natural way of things, um, which is, you know, there will be competition in, in that layer. And I think some folks will, you know, especially in particular verticals and use cases, be able to establish differentiation. There will be competition in our layer, and then some folks will be able to establish differentiation. As this equilibrium develops, you know, I think it is just naturally the case that, that, that folks in these layers want to collaborate, um, you know, and, and figure out the right ways to work together, as long as that, that, that holds.
AI assessment note: “whether we want it or not, it seems like folks are pushing ahead”
Redirected raw tape
D 3 · C 4 · P 3 · Cm 3 3.30
Q Are these tools going to be sufficiently paid for the value creation that they are enacting?
A Yeah. Yeah. Um, look, I, I think the value creation is a beautiful thing. Um, and, and to this point, by the way, of, of where does the value accrue in AI that we were talking about earlier? There are thirty million software engineers in the world. You know, we're going to make them all 10 X more efficient over these coming years. We're going to be writing 10 X more code. We're going to be doing a lot here. And I think that, you know, we could talk about whether it's five percent or 10% or 20% or 30% of, you know, the value that, that actually gets collected. Um, by the companies doing this. But, but honestly, I, I think that the, the, the highest order bid is actually less that and more about, um, just, you know, getting the technology and, and, and building the products to, to a point where, where everyone is, is, is, is going a lot faster with them.
AI assessment note: “is actually less that and more about, um, just, you know, getting the technology”
Redirected raw tape
D 3 · C 4 · P 3 · Cm 3 3.30
Q Are these tools going to be sufficiently paid for the value creation that they are enacting?
A Yeah. Yeah. Um, look, I, I think the value creation is a beautiful thing. Um, and, and to this point, by the way, of, of where does the value accrue in AI that we were talking about earlier? There are thirty million software engineers in the world. You know, we're going to make them all 10 X more efficient over these coming years. We're going to be writing 10 X more code. We're going to be doing a lot here. And I think that, you know, we could talk about whether it's five percent or 10% or 20% or 30% of, you know, the value that, that actually gets collected. Um, by the companies doing this. But, but honestly, I, I think that the, the, the highest order bid is actually less that and more about, um, just, you know, getting the technology and, and, and building the products to, to a point where, where everyone is, is, is, is going a lot faster with them.
AI assessment note: “the highest order bid is actually less that and more about, um, just, you know”
Redirected raw tape
D 2 · C 4 · P 3 · Cm 3 3.00
Q one of the like, oh, shits that could happen that's very obvious to, I think, me and everyone is like, the dependency now around Anthropic, you know, obviously Winsurf, you know, when I had Varun on the show, you know, they were very much reliant on them then, and then they got cut off when the OpenAI deal was done. Is the reliance on Anthropic greater than it's ever been?
A Yeah, I mean, look, we, we, we work very closely with Anthropic. I, I, I think Anthropic is a great company, and, and, you know, I, I think the Foundation Labs in general are great companies. People always ask this question about, you know, where does the value accrue in AI? Does it, you know, is it chips? Is it semiconductors? Is it, um, you know, foundation models? Is the application layer? Is the infralayer? And, and I, I think the boring but true answer is it accrues wherever you are able to establish real differentiation in your space. Um, and I think there will be a lot of spaces for which that's the case, and you know, to be honest, I, I think the Foundation Labs' businesses will do extremely well, right? But, but I, I think the thing that we own is, um, and that we spend all of our time on, I think is, is, is actually a nicely complementary piece, which is in some ways really thinking about how to best optimize for very particular capabilities within software engineering, and how to deliver, um, and ship, like, a really great product experience around that, right?
AI assessment note: “People always ask this question about, you know, where does the value accrue”
Redirected raw tape
D 2 · C 4 · P 3 · Cm 3 3.00
Q You not want, though, the developer products For these foundation models to commoditize, because then you gain leverage. If Anthropix and Claude continues to be so much better than it is, their leverage is gone. Do you not want that commoditization?
A Yeah. Yeah. Look, I, I mean, I think it's, uh, it's, to be honest, I mean, I think whether we want it or not, it seems like folks are, folks are pushing ahead in the foundation model space and making a ton of progress. We've seen a lot of launches even in the last, you know, week or two, right? I mean, there's Kini and Grok and, um, and a ton of great progress that's been happening. And, and I think that is the natural way of things, um, which is, you know, there will be competition in, in that layer. And I think some folks will, you know, especially in particular verticals and use cases, be able to establish differentiation. There will be competition in our layer, and then some folks will be able to establish differentiation. As this equilibrium develops, you know, I think it is just naturally the case that, that, that folks in these layers want to collaborate, um, you know, and, and figure out the right ways to work together, as long as that, that, that holds.
AI assessment note: “whether we want it or not, it seems like folks are pushing ahead”
Answered raw tape
D 3 · C 3 · P 3 · Cm 2 2.85
Q I love it. Uh, okay, dude. Was one widely held belief about AI that you think is completely wrong?
A Yeah, I'll give you a take. You know, it's, Sam Altman had this post 10 years ago called Bubble Theory. Do you remember it? He was basically saying, this was in his YC days, and he said, you know, everyone here says that all these companies are overvalued and we're in a bubble, and it's obviously fun to talk about bubbles and all, but I don't believe that, and I'm going to give you a bet. And he said, here are the, it looks hilarious, by the way, when you read it in retrospect, which is like, here are the top, you know, YC companies today, and it's literally like Uber and Airbnb and like, you know, And it's like, today, these are worth this much. I predict that five years from now, they're going to be worth, you know, three X more, you know? And then it's like, here are these kind of like emerging, you know, mid, mid-level companies. And then that list was like, you know, Stripe and, um, and some of these others. And it's like, today, these are worth this much. I predict these will be up at least three X, you know? And he basically said, everyone says we're in a bubble. If you'd like to go and bet on that and put your own money down, I am happy to put, you know, money on this. And I have to say, in AI, I really feel this. I, I feel this, I think, now more strongly than ever, which is over the last two years, people kind of think of it as this, this Gen AI wave. Again, like we'r…
AI assessment note: “I think people have really underappreciated how much”
Redirected raw tape
D 2 · C 4 · P 2 · Cm 2 2.60
Q one of the like, oh, shits that could happen that's very obvious to, I think, me and everyone is like, the dependency now around Anthropic, you know, obviously Winsurf, you know, when I had Varun on the show, you know, they were very much reliant on them then, and then they got cut off when the OpenAI deal was done. Is the reliance on Anthropic greater than it's ever been?
A Yeah, I mean, look, we, we, we work very closely with Anthropic. I, I, I think Anthropic is a great company, and, and, you know, I, I think the Foundation Labs in general are great companies. People always ask this question about, you know, where does the value accrue in AI? Does it, you know, is it chips? Is it semiconductors? Is it, um, you know, foundation models? Is the application layer? Is the infralayer? And, and I, I think the boring but true answer is it accrues wherever you are able to establish real differentiation in your space. Um, and I think there will be a lot of spaces for which that's the case, and you know, to be honest, I, I think the Foundation Labs' businesses will do extremely well, right? But, but I, I think the thing that we own is, um, and that we spend all of our time on, I think is, is, is actually a nicely complementary piece, which is in some ways really thinking about how to best optimize for very particular capabilities within software engineering, and how to deliver, um, and ship, like, a really great product experience around that, right?
AI assessment note: “People always ask this question about, you know, where does the value accrue in AI”
